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Comment by Oras | Hacker News Reader

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Oras·

MS put 10B for 50% if I remember correctly. OpenAI is worth many multiples of that.

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> OpenAI is worth many multiples of that

valued at --which I'd say is a reasonable distinction to make right about now

Their revenue is 20B, so they still worth multiples of 10B regardless of valuation even if you consider the basic 5x revenue valuation

https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-cfo-says-annualized-...

"The basic 5x revenue valuation" doesn't work for businesses that aren't profitable.

It is also unclear to me how much real debt they carry. They have famously been signing many deals: RAM, datacenters, maybe nuclear power plants -I no longer know what is a joke or not. They must be carrying hundreds of billions in paper debt obligations, which is tough to payback at $20B revenue.

I'm giddy about reading their S1 in the near future. We're about to have another "We What the Fuck" moment.

> Their revenue is 20B, so they still worth multiples of 10B regardless of valuation...

I can easily generate double that revenue, by selling $20 bills for $10.

When they put 10B in, they got weird tiered revenue shares and other rights. That has been simplified to 27% of OpenAI today. I don't know what that meant their 10B would be worth before dilution in later rounds.

> OpenAI is worth many multiples of that.

How?

Because they recently issued shares at a price many multiples of that, and people bought them. How else would you define financial worth?

I would use your number adjusted by some demand elasticity curve.

The "back-of-the-napkin" only has enough room to estimate based on recently issued share price. Seems reasonable to me.

Sure, for napkin level math you can go with this, and multiply by some simple multiplier, I like 70%.

Does speculation equal worth?

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