According to Polymarket, there's a 16% chance US will confirm aliens exist: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens...
https://krebsonsecurity.com/2019/11/its-way-too-easy-to-get-...
I haven’t seen any follow-up reporting, but it looks like the process now requires some semblance of identity verification:
It doesn't mean there's a 16% chance.
It's probably more attractive to gamblers when presented like this.
The are motives for lying on this - for a start, if a president knows definitively they're going to say it, it's a free 81% return. Secondly, it's a pretty big dead cat to throw on the table to distract from any scandal and/or to keep themselves in the news cycle on a different topic.