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Comment by pluc | Hacker News Reader

I'm not a gambler, but there should be a thing on those gambling sites on whether this is about extraterrestrial life or mexicans

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Who said it’s a binary choice? Could have extraterrestrials taking advantage of our weak southern border to enter the country.

They're eating the cats![0]

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ALF_(TV_series)

They also are eating stars apparently.

Even better, then noone will be payed out.

> Who said it’s a binary choice?

Have you not been paying attention to this administration?

Ask and ye shall receive: https://manifold.markets/benmanns/aliensgov-prop-bets (play money). I set this up so multiple can resolve and other users can add additional speculations.

Oh my god.

EDIT: oh it's play money, good website

This is so smart. Gambling with fake money.

I love the idea of polybet but would never invest into it. Gonna check this out

Exprience shows that braindead ideas are great moneymakers.

If it was about extraterrestrial life, there would be a massive insider trade and Polymarket would've climbed. It's been static for the past day.

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens...

According to Polymarket, there's a 16% chance US will confirm aliens exist: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens...

Someone with the ability to register .gov domains is trying to make a sneaky buck.

It used to be anyone with a fax machine could register any .gov but they fixed that when there was a news report about it.

I was curious about this, so for anyone else who’s interested, here’s a KrebsOnSecurity article from 2019 about how easy it was to fraudulently register a .gov domain:

https://krebsonsecurity.com/2019/11/its-way-too-easy-to-get-...

I haven’t seen any follow-up reporting, but it looks like the process now requires some semblance of identity verification:

https://get.gov/domains/before/

That's just gambling without any basis for reality though. Not sure if you're actually attributing any weight to random gamblers lol.

We know for a fact that the US government has no evidence of aliens existing, because there's a 0% chance Trump wouldn't have blabbed about it during his first term.

I mean, fair, but who says he'll be appraised and knowing about it at all?

Ah, the wisdom of the crowds (of gamblers.)

Taking the opposite side of this bet feels like a free 19% return on your money.

It's based on what Donald Trump (or any other US president, should it come to that) says, not on any evidence or ground truth beyond that.

The are motives for lying on this - for a start, if a president knows definitively they're going to say it, it's a free 81% return. Secondly, it's a pretty big dead cat to throw on the table to distract from any scandal and/or to keep themselves in the news cycle on a different topic.

It's because of the time value of money. Buying no is much like buying a bond.

It doesn't mean there's a 16% chance.

It's probably more attractive to gamblers when presented like this.

et.aliens.gov, mexicans.aliens.gov

It can do it all!

ancient.aliens.gov

A possible collaboration

> mexicans.aliens.gov

You mean that 2023 "reveal"?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37494876

Who do you think built Chicken Itza?!

This gave me a good laugh. I think you got auto-corrected from 'Chichén Itzá', to 'Chicken'.

If you go to the other sites down there (like Tulum) very often you will hear the vendors talk trash about Chichen Itza calling it "Chicken Pizza".

Didn't pick up on that when I was there. But I'll say that Chichen is definitely worth a visit and only about a 2h drive from Cancun! You can do a tour with a group like Xcaret so you don't even have to drive there yourself.

Yeah… yeah… that’s totally what happened :)

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