Alternatively, how much could be made by creating a map application for the major mobile platforms, and sell it to the consumer direct? (bundled free with Windows Phone, no doubt) Probably not as much as a licensing deal, but still no small amount.
Considering that Nokia paid $ 8.1 billion for Navteq, they really need to make money with that.
A few years ago, Google used licensed data from Navteq. But I don't know if that's the case anymore.
Looking at the ToS in maps.google.com, there's no trace of Navteq anymore, but there's mention of them in localized versions of Google Maps. As an example:
UK: http://www.google.com/intl/en_uk/help/terms_maps.html
Canada: http://www.google.com/intl/en_ca/help/terms_maps.html
Argentina: http://www.google.com/intl/es_ar/help/terms_maps.html
Navteq is still there, but maybe, it's just that they forgot to update the ToS (Lazy lawyers?).
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[1] http://www.gpsbusinessnews.com/NAVTEQ-1-Billion-Sales-in-201...
[1] http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/09/18/amazon_google_map_bm...
[2]http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/10/01/nokia_oracle_maps_de...
Navteq still do license map data. But it's not as profitable as all that; IIRC they weren't breaking even when Nokia took them over. This seems fairly common in that industry; Ordnance Survey (who aren't fully commercial, but the same concept applies) are heavily supplemented by public money, for example. It's presumably even more expensive to do all the capture for Street View type data.
> Alternatively, how much could be made by creating a map application for the major mobile platforms, and sell it to the consumer direct?
That seems like a pretty good idea to me, although I doubt it's going to dig them out of a €1.5bn hole. Still, Nokia don't have a lot to lose at this point, although I feel like they're still in denial about their recent lack of competitiveness in smartphones.
http://press.nokia.com/2012/07/19/nokia-corporation-q2-2012-...
Edit: €1.3bn loss in Q1, €800ml loss last quarter. I guess that's what you meant. Still, not a "hole"... just driving straight into one :)