Both can be true. w10 eol can drive sales of new hardware and a subset can be using the opportunity to switch to Mac.

Clicking through the link, both Macs and PCs are up. And Intel can even be upset it's not more of an Intel mix, so all of that can be true at the same time.

Where are you seeing support until 2038? I see support until 2027.

Even if it was 2038, Win10 LTSC only supports hardware from the time it was originally released. That might or might not be a problem today, but it definitely will be problematic long before 2038.