Indeed, and with the technology plateau-ing, being 6-12 months late with less debt is just long term thinking.
Also, Europe being in the race is a big deal for consumers.
Also, Europe being in the race is a big deal for consumers.
People were claiming that since year 2022. Where's the plateau?
Hmmm. It's almost as if a company without a user data stream like OpenAI would be driven to release an end-user device for the sole purpose of capturing more training data...
LLMs haven't improved much. What's improved is the chat apps: switching between language model, vision, image and video generation and being able to search the internet is what has made them seem 100x more useful.
Run a single LLM without any tools... They're still pretty dumb.
The technology is closer to a decade from seeing a plateau for the large general models. GPT o3 is significantly beyond o1 (much less 3.5 which was just Nov 2022). Claude 4 is significantly beyond 3.5. They're not subtle improvements. And most likely there will be a splintering of specialization that will see huge leaps outside the large general models. The radical leap in coding capabilities over the past 12-18 months is just an early example of how that will work, and it will affect every segment of human endeavour.
They're burning through computers and capital. No amount of advertising could cover the cost of training or even running these models. The massive subscription costs we've started seeing are just a small glimpse into the money they are burning through.
They will NOT make a profit using the current methods unless the models become at least 10 times more efficient than they are now. At which point can Europe adapt to the innovation without much cost.
It's an arms race to see who can burn the most money the fastest, while selling the result for as little as possible. When they need to start making money, it will all come crashing down.