You can be 6/12 months later, and have not burned tens of billions compared to the best in class, I see it an engineering win.
I absolutely understand those that say "yeah, but customers will only use the best", I see it, but is market share of forever money losing businesses that valuable?
Also, Europe being in the race is a big deal for consumers.
The technology is closer to a decade from seeing a plateau for the large general models. GPT o3 is significantly beyond o1 (much less 3.5 which was just Nov 2022). Claude 4 is significantly beyond 3.5. They're not subtle improvements. And most likely there will be a splintering of specialization that will see huge leaps outside the large general models. The radical leap in coding capabilities over the past 12-18 months is just an early example of how that will work, and it will affect every segment of human endeavour.
They're burning through computers and capital. No amount of advertising could cover the cost of training or even running these models. The massive subscription costs we've started seeing are just a small glimpse into the money they are burning through.
They will NOT make a profit using the current methods unless the models become at least 10 times more efficient than they are now. At which point can Europe adapt to the innovation without much cost.
It's an arms race to see who can burn the most money the fastest, while selling the result for as little as possible. When they need to start making money, it will all come crashing down.
People were claiming that since year 2022. Where's the plateau?
Hmmm. It's almost as if a company without a user data stream like OpenAI would be driven to release an end-user device for the sole purpose of capturing more training data...
LLMs haven't improved much. What's improved is the chat apps: switching between language model, vision, image and video generation and being able to search the internet is what has made them seem 100x more useful.
Run a single LLM without any tools... They're still pretty dumb.
Over the coming years it won't be possible to stay a mere 6-12 months behind as the costs to build and maintain the AI super-infrastructure keeps climbing. It'll become a guaranteed implosion scenario. Winning will provide the ongoing immense resources needed to keep pushing up the hill forever. Everybody else - except a few - will fall away. The same outcome took place in search. Anybody spot Lycos, Excite, Hotbot, AltaVista around? It costs an enormous amount of money to try to keep up with Google (Bing, Baidu, Yandex) in search and scale it. This will be an even more brutal example of that, as the costs are even higher to scale.
The only way Mistral survives is if they're heavily subsidized directly by European states.
You cannot compare Uber to the AI market. They are too different. Uber captured the market because having three taxi services is annoying. But people are readily jumping between models using multi-model platforms. And nobody is significantly ahead of the pack. There is nothing that sets anyone apart aside from the rate at which they are burning capital. Any advantage is closed within a year.
If OpenAI wants to make a profit, it will raise prices and be dropped at a heartbeat for the next cheapest option. Most software stacks are designed to be model-agnostic, making integration or support a non-factor.
The winner-take-all effect is a lot stronger with chat apps.
No they don't. They failed in every market except a few niche ones.