The Economist has articles on that subject already. They do their homework. Here's just one:
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2025/04/24/who-will-...
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2025/04/24/who-will-...
Addressing the other question is a pre-requisite to considering the one included in this piece. And given that they are ignoring the presumable answer to the other question, they have not justified the existence of this article.