So that means all of the big tech companies are going down: Facebook, Google, Apple.
Only Microsoft remains strong though for how much longer remains to be seen.
A great time for startups.
But yes, it's a great time for startups. I'd argue it always is and always has been.
Just 3 trillion or so dollars, that’s about it
Which is what the whole thread seems to be about (Apple squandering an opportunity and naturally others who are doing the same), not their current market cap.
Could they be emulated? Sure. Maybe not 100% (see Linux), but mostly yes. But then you have to make that work, ensure that the emulations keep working, etc.
That is the real wall around Windows. Office has similar walls -- large numbers of spreadsheets, for example, many of which are critical and which do complex things. There are lots of programs that can read Excel spreadsheets, but perfect compatibility is difficult.
And there are lots of people who know these products -- re-educating them is a secondary wall, because it represents a lot of work for the customers.
Microsoft cloud syncing is absolutely atrocious and when people pass around Excel spreadsheets they inevitably get messed up or half the information is lost because there's no single source of truth that everyone adds to. One can argue Google Docs probably isn't technically better but collaboration is 100x easier.
> large numbers of spreadsheets, for example, many of which are critical and which do complex things
And which all need to be rewritten into database backed apps, IMO.
> There are a very large number of steam games that were written for Windows. There are similarly large numbers of commercial products with value for particular companies. Could they be emulated? Sure. Maybe not 100% (see Linux), but mostly yes. But then you have to make that work, ensure that the emulations keep working, etc.
Wine and Proton do an excellent job at emulating to keep old binaries alive.
For new apps, Android and iOS are now enormous markets. Consoles are huge. Windows gaming is big enough, but I don't think targeting only Windows is worthwhile. Is it really more difficult to use SDL + Vulkan (or insert any other multi-platform graphics API) versus Windows APIs + D3D12? When everyone is building for multiple platforms it makes that moat a lot thinner...
For me, the success of the Steam Deck shows that "desktop" Linux can be successful, can be used by the masses. Game companies are even tweaking their games to work better on Proton or straight up porting them, very few are philosophically Windows-only.
And remember how Android absolutely destroyed Windows Phone even though Microsoft bought the largest cell phone manufacturer in the world... Not saying it will happen to Windows but I think it's a possibility...
Wine and Proton work for many things, but far from everything. Plenty of games don't work well on the Steam Deck.
Ergo, Windows isn't in any near-term danger. As far as Android and iOS being markets, sure. So what? It doesn't threaten Microsoft that there are additional markets.
Are you just referring to the games with anti-cheat? If so, I do agree, though I think with the success of the Steam Deck the anti-cheat providers are (or better be if they don't want to get their asses kicked) going to be looking seriously into options.
Outside of anti-cheat, I've yet to find a game that doesn't work on Steam Deck. Even the ones with the worst ratings will usually launch and you can play if you plug in a mouse and keyboard. Obviously not a great experience, but those games would have the exact same problem on any PC, Windows or Linux. It just happens that most Windows PCs have a keyboard and mouse already plugged in.
But longer term nothing is certain : look what happened to IBM or typewriters.
I think they're all doing pretty well at the moment.
Even with Googles monopoly legal issues, they are more valuable than ever.