This isn't true: https://ourworldindata.org/its-not-just-about-child-mortalit...
Consider: https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality-in-the-past
From this article: "Researchers also collected data about hunter-gatherer societies. The 17 different societies include paleolithic and modern-day hunter-gatherers and the mortality rate was high in all of them. On average, 49% of all children died.[5]"
This is cited as coming from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S10905...
Which categorically states: "Unfortunately there simply is not enough direct paleodemographic archaeological data to make definite claims about the global patterns of infant and child mortality rates of our Paleolithic hunter–gatherer ancestors."
The author of the Our World in Data piece seemingly intentionally conflates the proxy with actual archaeological evidence of the actual child mortality rates. Given the clear warning in the cited article about making definite claims, I cannot read the deception any other way.
After seeing this error, I do not know how you could possibly trust anything they have to say on the matter.
The largest contribution to improving life expectancy is measured by reductions in child mortality. The factors that drove those improvements (infection control, improved hygienic practices, food quality, regulation of food and drug purity, medicine) benefited everyone, but had the biggest impact on the old and young. In the 1850s, 8,000 infants died annually from adulterated milk alone.
I think of my own journey. In 1824, 200 year ago Spooky23 would have died 20 years ago, a half blind cripple. 2024 Spooky23 is healthy with no back issues and god willing a few more decades.
In 1850 a 0 year old would expect to live to 41.6 years. A 5 year old would expect to live to 55.2.
If we waved a magic wand and let all infants survive past childhood with nothing else changed in 1850 life expectancy would still be 27 years lower than it is today. Or put another way you'd have the same life expectancy as someone in South Sudan or Somalia.
Nobody waved a wand. The contaminated milk that killed infants killed adults too - alcohol and milk were alternatives to unsafe water. Public health, medicine and other factors improved things.
We don’t really have great stats from before the 19th century. Was 1850 a nadir in life expectancy? I’m not sure - but I suspect it varied by region and rural/urban conditions. 1750 NYC wasn’t as gross as 1850.
If by pedantry you mean that I'm not ignoring the cause of 70% of the improvement in life expectancy in the last 200 years then sure.
I am partial to using unform priors over all possibilities, and then just adding in the actual evidence for which you can actually quantify its quality/strength. Your "prior" for a new situation is constructed by applying the data you already had previously to a uniform prior- not by fabricating it from whole cloth via your biases. In practice this may be impossible for humans to do in their heads, but computers certainly can!
It’s totally reasonable and statistically sound to use statistics from Victorian England as the sole proxy for the pre-modern human race. /s
The life expectancy of a 60-year old going from 74.4 to 84, or a 70-year old from 79.1 to 85.9, is significant and meaningful. Not as much as a newborn's LE going from 41.6 to 81.1. But far from "pretty stable in the 70s-80s range for most of human history."
Also, recent life-expectancy increases have come from adult morality reductions [1].
> adult morality reductions
LOL