Investors need to stop looking at AI as a path to profits, and more as an enormous risk to the profitability of every other business. If AGI gets hit, it's probably not going to stay monopolized for long, nor is it going to be market neutral. Every business is going to need an AI infusion to compete, which many will get, cutting costs and raising efficiencies of each business in an ongoing competitive spiral to the bottom line - which... will be eventually measured in just: robotic labor, energy, and compute. The profit margins on all those businesses shrink to nothing as they become basically utilities. The net effect? Possibly a massive deflation, and "crashing" of the stock market, even as the total utility and value of the system skyrockets.

This isn't a bull bet, it's a bear. AI would need to be perfectly monopolized to capture all the gains, and it's increasingly looking like that won't be the case - as all the component pieces are already open source at competitive levels, and any final architecture improvements that cross the final thresholds could be leaked in a 50GB file. Whoever gets to it first has a few months head start, at most, and probably not enough time or control to sell products - or shovels. After that it's a neverending race to zero, to the benefit of the consumer and the detriment of the investor.

Nvidia is a great example case. They currently dominate the GPU market, an "essential hardware for AI", yet ternary asic chips specialized for transformer-only architectures are looking quite viable at 1999s tech levels. Wouldn't bet on that monopoly sticking around much longer.