It is not looking good for Ukraine at the moment. Come January 2025, it will likely get a lot worse.
Enormous quantities of European artillery production are finally coming online while Russia's stockpiles of artillery and vehicles are finally running dry. They won't "run out", but they can't continue pushing forwards with only what they are able to produce fresh themselves. Much like the missile strikes - sure they won't literally "run out" as long as they continue production but Russia can no longer throw 500 missiles a month at Ukraine anymore because the stockpiles are gone. Now the biggest problem is glide bombs, but that is being mitigated also.
The situation with the power grid is quite serious, though. It's going to be a very difficult winter for civilians. It's a damn shame that western nations couldn't pony up sufficient air defense before it was needed rather than waiting until after it was too late.
This is what I was talking about.
For the record: Ukraine has no defense agreement with any of these western nations that are currently supporting them, and there is 0 chance that - if roles were reversed and another European nation had been attacked - that they'd have supported this theoretical victim.
The way you're phrasing that is honestly outrageous.
The UK and US provided "security assurances" to Ukraine in return for it giving up its nukes.
Why do you feel this is relevant?
> (...) and there is 0 chance that - if roles were reversed and another European nation had been attacked - that they'd have supported this theoretical victim.
I'm also not sure what leads you to believe this is relevant at all.
Ukraine is surrounded by NATO members. If NATO is not enough to counter a threat, things would be far bleaker for Ukraine as well.
What point do you think you're making?
Neighboring is not surrounding.
There would've been countless ways to mitigate the risks of the invasion, they choose not to and now even badmouth the nations literally gifting them money.
This is at a level of homeowners not insuring their homes and then complain that the state took a while to rebuild their homes free of charge.
The big and mighty Putin needs to visit North Korea to get ammo because no one else respects Russia any more. That doesn't sound like things are going that well.
Russia has shown that they don't have the resources to make meaningful progress towards Ukraine and given West's support the outcome is inevitable that Ukraine will be victorious.
The only question is if Russia apologists gain political power in the west and manage to stop West's support (Trump is Putin's buddy, by his own admission for example).
And even then the remaining support in West gives Ukraine the upper hand.
Even though the russian invasion of Ukraine is already a catastrophic strategic defeat for Russia and the initial domino of its unavoidable collapse, this does not mean that Ukraine is safe and Russia's genocide of Ukraine cannot go through anymore. In a war of attrition Russia has far more people they can force into the meat grinder to exhaust Ukraine's defenses. Even if Russia's meat wave tactics continue to be the norm, Ukraine can only support for so long today's 10-to-1 kill/death ratio.
Odds are in their, and hence Putin's, favor.
And even if Trump wins it's not likely he can pull all support.