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Comment by faeriechangling | Hacker News Reader

Generally, when sentiment doesn’t match the statistics, it indicates that you’re gathering the data wrong more than it indicates mass public hysteria. Not that mass public hysteria does not happen.

They’re measuring economic productivity based on the horse trading of exponentially increasing asset prices, while ignoring that people are renting more, living in worse accommodations, having less access to transport, and are eating a worse diet. Just because a small percentage of the population is getting rich on paper doesn’t mean the majority will be persuaded that their economic situation isn’t in free fall.

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I just don't agree.

The only time in my life the average person thought the economy was good was the peak of the dot com bubble.

Since then the average person either thinks the economy is bad and we are about to go into a recession if they don't think we are already in one, or we actually are in a recession.

It is the problem of the marginal utility of a dollar when the society is already so far out on this logarithmic curve.

I have found that it largely depends on class. If you are a blue collar or middle class worker, things have been getting worse for several decades now. If you are upper-middle class or richer, there may be more ebbs and flows in how you experience the economy.

Except lower class people got the highest increases in wages over the last few years. It's only the top 5% that haven't netted out far ahead, and they're basically at the same level as before.

And how has the cost of living/housing/transportation increased? And not just over 5 years. Over decades. How much more are they actually saving compared to 10 or 20 years ago? The reason why your points are considered "gaslighting" by others is because you are addressing the wrong questions.

Yeah, was going to comment the same. Pretty clear evidence of a lot of wage compression the past few years https://www.nber.org/papers/w31010 https://www.ft.com/content/f32d4927-a182-4d7c-bf2d-dd915ef84...

Your data ironically cannot be viewed unless you are a paying member.

When you bring this up people call it "gaslighting" because positive news can't be real. It's honestly bizarre.

> If you are a blue collar or middle class worker

This. All of my friends are blue collar workers. It's been getting tougher for them year after year. It's been difficult to watch at times.

The ones who have gone to work for themselves fare better, but it hasn't gotten any easier for those grinding it out on an hourly wage.

Your theory doesn’t explain 49% of people thinking the sp500 is down for the year

I think the reason for this is that most people don’t even know the answer. If there were only 2 options when this question was asked then 49% of people saying the s&p500 is down would indicate a low confidence result I think. The number is basically a meaningless coin flip.

Eh. You need the average person being more likely to guess incorrectly given at least some of them will know the right answer

> gathering the data wrong more than it indicates mass public hysteria.

Simpler explanation - people derive their model of the world from the news, and the news is slanted heavily towards economic negativity. For roughly a year in 2023 exceptionally strong unemployment reports were reported as "bad" because they caused the markets to decline because investors want lower rates. People see layoffs in the news, despite the fact that big tech has a fraction of total employment even in the information sector.

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