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Comment by bobthepanda | Hacker News Reader

So long as the EU is more or less aligned with the US and the Suez Canal exists, the Middle East as a flashpoint is not going anywhere.

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Right now, most container sea traffic is going around Cape Horn rather than risking the Red Sea. China is working on the Belt and Road scheme to move container traffic from China to Europe to rail.

Isn't rail shipping far more expensive than, er, ships? Also, good luck getting anything from China to Europe via rail without going through either Iran (the Middle East) or Russia (not exactly on friendly terms with Europe at the moment, to put it lightly).

it's more expensive, but they are getting closer. 30+ days by ship vs 10 days by rail, insurance, inflation and other risks. It could be just 2x more expensive. For high and mid added value product it doesn't matter much.

I can imagine year 2060 when there is a magnetic rail link between Asia and Europe. Only some commodities like wheat go through Suez.

I was thinking that, but on the map at least there's the possibility of Turkmenistan-Caspian-Azerbaijan.

I know almost nothing about these places, despite an Azerbaijani coworker, so this may be unrealistic for other reasons.

Georgia has its frozen conflict with Russia and the Azeris have had recent on-and-off war with the Armenians, so it's not a great route either.

The Belt and Road maps I've seen are pretty low resolution, are they still going through Iran? Because I'd think that counts as "middle east", even if it's not the Suez.

Right, because it's a flashpoint at this very moment.

*Cape of Good Hope, they are going around Africa

Right, right. Cape Horn is the southern tip of South America.

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