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Comment by kiltedpanda | Hacker News Reader

I would imagine most folks at YCombinator would aspire to make similar mis-steps then, with >2m pre-orders and a 5 year waitlist. Yes, it was only $100 deposit and ultimate demand has yet to be tested, but it looks pretty promising.

The difference with Rivian and the F-150 is that Tesla have figured out how to actually make a good margin on their vehicles.

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Tesla has committed to making 100,000 Cybertrucks a year at this point. It's like they know the vast majority of that 2m+ people that pre-ordered it are not going to be buying it once they find out the actual details. When that pre-order site was up Tesla was promising 300+ miles of range on a charge for $50,000, which would be an incredible deal for a vehicle the size of the Cybertruck. When the reality comes out later this week and it's going to be more like 270 miles of range for $65,000 (which is around what people are predicting) the vast majority of the pre-orders are going to vaporize (fully refundable by the way).

> Tesla have figured out how to actually make a good margin on their vehicles.

It's too early to make a sensible comparison. Tesla lost money in large quantities very consistently for 14 years, until ~3 years after the Model 3 launch. Neither Ford nor Rivian are as far along yet.

Rivian is shipping. Infinitely better than something that's not.

CT, if it ever ships in volume, will be an important failure to rein in Musk's fantastical thinking (or his interest in Tesla).

"Rivian is shipping. Infinitely better than something that's not."

Even if they're losing $33k per vehicle? (See 2Q23 shareholder letter). Note this does not include R&D, CAPEX or SG&A. Was it infinitely better for WeWork to ship something than not?

"will be an important failure to rein in Musk's fantastical thinking" Why would it fail when there are >2m pre-orders and a a 5 year waitlist?

Those pre-orders are based on fictional pricing and fictional delivery date. I don't doubt that they'll sell all 180k cybertrucks they expect to make in the next 18 months (novelty factor goes a long way with people who have gobs of discretionary income), but I'd be willing to bet a lot of the "2 million" preorders are people who, like me, simply haven't canceled theirs yet but will when it's time to shell out whatever crazy price is announced for a truck that doesn't meet the promised specs.

So Rivian aims to produce 50k vehicles this year and that includes the delivery vans. AND they lose $33k per vehicle.

Even if Tesla 'only' delivers 180k cybertrucks in 18 months, and at a profit, they will still be far in the lead in the EV truck race.

To characterize the Cybertruck as some kind of failure or folly is not congruent with the facts.

Honestly you sound just like the Tesla doubters 5-10 years ago.

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