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Comment by samsolomon | Hacker News Reader

You're exactly right. The Cybertruck an enormous misstep for the company. And the amazing thing is Tesla figured out with the Model S that if you make a nice sedan that happens to be electric—people will buy it. There were a lot of people with disposable income that want to help the environment, but wanted to drive something nicer and less weird looking than a Prius.

They should have taken the same approach with their pickup. People expect trucks to be able to haul, tow and have a certain amount of bed space. If they were serious about building a pickup, they'd build something like the Lightning—a truck that could do all of that, but happens to be electric. Heck, if they did that Rivian might not be in business.

The Cybertruck is a novelty item and nobody who wants or needs the utility of a truck is going to consider it over a Rivian or F-150 Lightning.

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“People expect trucks to be able to haul, tow and have a certain amount of bed space.”

Oh how I wish that were true. Most pickups are just vanity items now. Americans who drive pickups don’t care about the environment, they want something big and flashy with more power.

Most other attempts at redesigning the truck bed have failed. The Chevy Avalanche and Cadillac Escalade EXT never sold well and were eventually cancelled. The Honda Ridgeline sold poorly and eventually was redesigned with a regular truck bed with straight walls. The problem with trucks with high bed walls is you can't throw gear, tools or materials over the side of the bed. You can't climb over the side of the bed to tie things down, and you can't (easily) put a custom cap or camper on it either. It's hard to see the Cybertruck selling real well once the initial rush wears off.

5.5 and 4.5 foot bed sizes sell like hotcakes, which is what I think the previous poster was referring to. You see a lot more of those these days than 8 foot longbeds.

Frankly, I've always pegged the cybertruck as a very "video gamer skulls and crossbones rawr" aesthetic...

...that I'm sure will be unironically adopted by authoritarian police forces as society seems oddly keen to adopt straight from dystopian sci fi movies.

I mean, why would I even care about bulletproof or even baseball pitch proof glass if I wasn't keen to crawl my vehicle over civilians who might shoot or throw things at me?

Seems to be aiming towards a different market than the F150.

I wonder if its not going to find a niche market in places like Columbia, Brazil and South Africa (and might get actually get more popular here if we start to import their organized crime and kidnapping issues).

> There were a lot of people with disposable income that want to help the environment

Most Tesla owners I know (and I know a lot), do not care about the environment more than the average non-owner who drive similarly priced vehicles.

I think the Venn diagram converges more on: people who have a lot of disposable income, but also who want to drive something modern and still be smart with their money (fuel and maintenance costs).

The Rivian has a 4.5 foot bed[0] and the F-150 Lightning has a 5.5 foot bed[1]. I don't think it's fair to call Cybertruck a novelty item based on its capabilities, especially compared to its competition.

0: https://rivian.com/r1t (Dimensions → Storage)

1: https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America...

(Of course there are completely legitimate downsides of Cybertruck - for example, with the sloped bed sides, it won't be able to tow a fifth wheel trailer. But that is a capability the vast majority of truck owners don't use.)

I disagree. I think the Cybertruck is going to fundamentally change what a pickup truck is and immediately antiquate the F-150-style truck that we all know and (were kind-of forced to) love.

This is validated by the absolutely insanely long line queueing up to buy this thing.

I predict that we'll see many more Cybertruck looking trucks in five years, just like we're seeing many more Model Y looking EVs now.

> This is validated by the absolutely insanely long line queueing up to buy this thing.

$100 deposit preorders without contact with the real thing isn't a sign of how popualr the real thing will be when people get it, its a sign of anticipation based on marketing and brand identity, probably with some FOMO built in.

> I predict that we'll see many more Cybertruck looking trucks in five years, just like we're seeing many more Model Y looking EVs now.

Model Y's just look like normal, pre-EV sedans of similar size for the last couple decades. That was Tesla conforming to the broader market expectations. The Cybertruck is...not that.

To be fair, Model Y's don't really look like pre-EV sedans. They depart significantly in shape and style: lack of grille for air intake, low drag coefficient, vastly increased cargo space, flush door handles, glass roof, incredible visibility of surroundings from the driver seat (compared to cramped sedans), etc.

Not sure I follow. The Model Y is just a small electric SUV. Functionally, it meets the same needs the RAV4 or Honda CRV have served for years.

The Cybertruck is a significant departure from traditional pickups. I don't see it replacing anyone who uses their truck—even if it's only once or twice a year. That why I said it's a novelty.

If it were smaller, maybe it could compete with the Maverick or Santa Cruz? I'm having difficult finding consistent specs, but I think it's closer in size to a full size truck though.

I would imagine most folks at YCombinator would aspire to make similar mis-steps then, with >2m pre-orders and a 5 year waitlist. Yes, it was only $100 deposit and ultimate demand has yet to be tested, but it looks pretty promising.

The difference with Rivian and the F-150 is that Tesla have figured out how to actually make a good margin on their vehicles.

> Tesla have figured out how to actually make a good margin on their vehicles.

It's too early to make a sensible comparison. Tesla lost money in large quantities very consistently for 14 years, until ~3 years after the Model 3 launch. Neither Ford nor Rivian are as far along yet.

Rivian is shipping. Infinitely better than something that's not.

CT, if it ever ships in volume, will be an important failure to rein in Musk's fantastical thinking (or his interest in Tesla).

"Rivian is shipping. Infinitely better than something that's not."

Even if they're losing $33k per vehicle? (See 2Q23 shareholder letter). Note this does not include R&D, CAPEX or SG&A. Was it infinitely better for WeWork to ship something than not?

"will be an important failure to rein in Musk's fantastical thinking" Why would it fail when there are >2m pre-orders and a a 5 year waitlist?

Those pre-orders are based on fictional pricing and fictional delivery date. I don't doubt that they'll sell all 180k cybertrucks they expect to make in the next 18 months (novelty factor goes a long way with people who have gobs of discretionary income), but I'd be willing to bet a lot of the "2 million" preorders are people who, like me, simply haven't canceled theirs yet but will when it's time to shell out whatever crazy price is announced for a truck that doesn't meet the promised specs.

So Rivian aims to produce 50k vehicles this year and that includes the delivery vans. AND they lose $33k per vehicle.

Even if Tesla 'only' delivers 180k cybertrucks in 18 months, and at a profit, they will still be far in the lead in the EV truck race.

To characterize the Cybertruck as some kind of failure or folly is not congruent with the facts.

Honestly you sound just like the Tesla doubters 5-10 years ago.

Tesla has committed to making 100,000 Cybertrucks a year at this point. It's like they know the vast majority of that 2m+ people that pre-ordered it are not going to be buying it once they find out the actual details. When that pre-order site was up Tesla was promising 300+ miles of range on a charge for $50,000, which would be an incredible deal for a vehicle the size of the Cybertruck. When the reality comes out later this week and it's going to be more like 270 miles of range for $65,000 (which is around what people are predicting) the vast majority of the pre-orders are going to vaporize (fully refundable by the way).

> The Cybertruck is a novelty item and nobody who wants or needs the utility of a truck is going to consider it over a Rivian or F-150 Lightning.

I wouldn't say "nobody". I'm sure there are a few million far-right types or Musk-is-Tony-Stark holdouts that are interested in driving the Bat-light equivalent of virtual signaling. Not everyone is rational and in the United States today, every single thing you purchase is part of some sort of weird identity flare ensemble. The Cybertruck may be on its way to become the most extravagant "Not Woke" badge you can wear.

> The Cybertruck may be on its way to become the most extravagant "Not Woke" badge you can wear

This is rather unfortunate, in my opinion, since I'm pretty solidly left and I still kinda want one. I actually set aside cash for it back in 2021 because I find the over-the-top design amusing and I really do want an electric truck. Unfortunately, I got tired of waiting and I have no illusion that it will be anywhere near the $40k base price anymore. I fully expect it to be in the ballpark of what a F-150 Lightning or a Rivian costs, which is basically flirting with $100k when all is said and done.

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