I can emphasize “feels”, but if you’ve ever parked a moderately expensive bike in a dense city center for a few hours you know the feeling. Especially if you’ve had a few stolen. If not the bike, the saddle. If not the saddle a wheel. If not the wheel the battery. Etc etc. It’s all really annoying trying to get home not matter the insurance.

I had two strollers stolen from my backyard while at home last year… it’s kinda crazy over here!

My coparent had her bike stolen. It was parked at her work - a government building. In front of the security office with a window facing the bike racks, and security cameras on them.

The cameras were not operational, the police did nothing but take the report.

I have had two very securely locked bikes stolen in years past. They were left in what turned out to be a vulnerable place for long periods of time. Depending on your habits it is a matter of when, not if. If you only take the bike to select locations for short periods or keep it out of sight, this does not apply to you.

depends what does 50/50 refers to?

If it is the probability of having it stolen after one year I would say it is pretty accurate in big metros like San Francisco or Denver.