I can emphasize “feels”, but if you’ve ever parked a moderately expensive bike in a dense city center for a few hours you know the feeling. Especially if you’ve had a few stolen. If not the bike, the saddle. If not the saddle a wheel. If not the wheel the battery. Etc etc. It’s all really annoying trying to get home not matter the insurance.

I had two strollers stolen from my backyard while at home last year… it’s kinda crazy over here!

depends what does 50/50 refers to?

If it is the probability of having it stolen after one year I would say it is pretty accurate in big metros like San Francisco or Denver.

My coparent had her bike stolen. It was parked at her work - a government building. In front of the security office with a window facing the bike racks, and security cameras on them.

The cameras were not operational, the police did nothing but take the report.

I have had two very securely locked bikes stolen in years past. They were left in what turned out to be a vulnerable place for long periods of time. Depending on your habits it is a matter of when, not if. If you only take the bike to select locations for short periods or keep it out of sight, this does not apply to you.