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Comment by ch4s3 | Hacker News Reader

Its disappointing that you're getting downvoted. We are in fact seeing a stronger than usual El Niño coupled with effects of climate change.

The NOAA predicts "By winter, there is an 84% chance of greater than a moderate strength El Nino, and a 56% chance of a strong El Nino developing."[1]

[1] https://www.weather.gov/news/230706-ElNino

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https://e360.yale.edu/digest/summer-2023-extreme-heat-causes

Several other compounding factors have been listed for this year as well.

Yeah, it's looking to be a rough year.

Though unpleasant, it at least sorta gives us a preview of 1.5C. Also lost in the conversation about 1.5C (or higher) via emissions, is that we could go even higher (or lower) depending on other cyclic and event factors. Thereby making some places that appear fine at risk over the long term.

Yes, that's the gist of the article if you ignore the hype and read what the interviewed scientists are saying. Less pollution as well...

How many years out of the past century have we had a 'strong El Nino', and why have none of the other ones hit anywhere close to 1.5C-above-average temperatures?

Several, ask 1935... https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-gla...?

There have been 3 similarly strong El Niños in the past century and 2 of them had resulted in +1F temperature increases. Which lines up with my point that a strong El Niño coupled with existing climate change explains the increase.

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