How many years out of the past century have we had a 'strong El Nino', and why have none of the other ones hit anywhere close to 1.5C-above-average temperatures?
There have been 3 similarly strong El Niños in the past century and 2 of them had resulted in +1F temperature increases. Which lines up with my point that a strong El Niño coupled with existing climate change explains the increase.
Several other compounding factors have been listed for this year as well.
Yeah, it's looking to be a rough year.
Though unpleasant, it at least sorta gives us a preview of 1.5C. Also lost in the conversation about 1.5C (or higher) via emissions, is that we could go even higher (or lower) depending on other cyclic and event factors. Thereby making some places that appear fine at risk over the long term.
Yes, that's the gist of the article if you ignore the hype and read what the interviewed scientists are saying. Less pollution as well...
Most deposits of methane clathrate are in sediments too deep to respond rapidly,[96] and 2007 modelling by Archer suggests that the methane forcing derived from them should remain a minor component of the overall greenhouse effect.[97] Clathrate deposits destabilize from the deepest part of their stability zone, which is typically hundreds of metres below the seabed. A sustained increase in sea temperature will warm its way through the sediment eventually, and cause the shallowest, most marginal clathrate to start to break down; but it will typically take on the order of a thousand years or more for the temperature change to get that far into the seabed.[97] Further, subsequent research on midlatitude deposits in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean found that any methane released from the seafloor, no matter the source, fails to reach the atmosphere once the depth exceeds 430 m (1,411 ft), while geological characteristics of the area make it impossible for hydrates to exist at depths shallower than 550 m (1,804 ft).[98][99]