Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army
worldbulletin.net
worldbulletin.net
Update: 19:28 Moscow time.
- Situation is normal in cities and oblasts: as in, there seem to be no panic but people are definitely reading the news.
- Everyone support the government - although I find Russians to be highly political apathetic (which is one of the major roots of the problems in the country IME). The ones who'd soft corner for Wagner also seem to note that Prigozhin should've picked a better time for this. Wagner posters for recruitment are being removed. In all sense, it has fallen from grace.
- Wagner definitely does not have a high proportion of supporters amongst civilians. Within the army's junior ranks (and in Rosgvardiya) there are people that are more sympathetic to it, hence, why they do not explicitly used force against them. Rumors here are that this is one of the reasons why Ahmat forces were sent to Rostov.
- Wagner forces themselves seem to have strict instructions not to use show of force against esp. civilians in order to not alienate them.
- I'd take Western-news with some salt as well because this is a good time to mix information-war as well.
- Moscow is on high alert, people aren't suggested to make too many public movements, and Monday is declared holiday for most public institutions. Many dense places (malls etc.) have been evacuated. I believe this is to ensure that civilians are neither impacted nor used as hostages.
- For best/live updates, use Telegram channels (in Russian) or Tass (in Russian, use your BS-sensor accordingly)
That's a good survival strategy.
You'll see them side with the winner as soon as it becomes obvious who that is.
There is a cumulative "corruption of will" - for the lack of better term - that comes with it. And when there is no will, those who can have their way, will continue to have it.
Also the same government that conscripted war protesters then sent them to the front lines…
There's a ukranian proverb that is also part of russian culture in english it's meaning sounds like "lords fight - serfs struggle" (паны дерутся - у холопов чубы трещат). So for ordinary person best strategy is not to get yourself between Scylla and Charybdis and be loyal to any power unless you get direct profits from loyalty.
All that matters is making money. Putin, Prigozhin, the Kremlin, do not care about Russians or Ukrainians. Don't care about their reputation, the world or treaties.
"The current situation: today, we were dealt a missile strike. After this strike, helicopters did their work. Then, artillery.
The orders were coming from the Head of General Staff to destroy PMC Wagner. After a meeting with the Minister of Defence Shoygu where they made this decision - to destroy the rebellious units, who are ready to defend the motherland, but not their asses.
As of now, we’ve crossed the state borders in all areas. Border guards came towards us and hugged our fighters.
Now, we’re entering Rostov. Units of the Ministry of Defence, in fact, the conscripts who were thrown to block our path, moved away.
We do not fight with children. We do not kill children. Shoygu is killing children by throwing untrained soldiers, conscripts included, into the war.
He set up 18-year-old lads against us. They’re like children and grandchildren to us. Therefore, these lads will live and return to their mothers.
We only fight with professionals. But if someone stands in our path, we will destroy EVERYTHING in our way.
We lend a hand to anyone. No need to spit in this hand. We are moving forward, going to the end.
Regarding claims regarding the arrest: this brotherhood, this justice, this honour, this conscience is what we have. But when you make these claims, you haven’t got these feelings. These feelings are destroyed. Thus, you cannot understand anything but betrayal."
Audio: https://t.co/eVLNEA708y
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672383249656496128
The problem for the Russian government is that many ordinary pro-war Russians see Prigozhin as a hero. If they kill him, he'll become a martyr.
For all I care both sides are war criminals and should answer for their atrocities in Ukraine. If they can kill each other without also killing civilians, don't think we should stand in their way too much.
Prigozhin seems to be playing this savvily. Extremely savvily. He isn't directly threatening Putin. There is a face-saving change in which Shoigu et al are executed and Prigozhin and Putin split their cookies. Putin can frame it as discovering they lied to him, and possibly even re-set expectations for the war in Ukraine.
It's not guaranteed that units will agree to deploy against other Russians. Not guaranteed that if they deploy they will fight. Not guaranteed that if they fight they will win.
Wagner has crossed the Rubicon and now it's do or die for them. They'll fight hard and are probably the most capable individual fighting force in Russia right now. Biggest challenge they face is air strikes. But if they brought SAMs with them or the air force won't bomb things will get dicey quickly.
A) Older, experienced soldiers of fortune types. They did tours in Africa and other places and know how to fight. They are not too numerous and they have absolutely no interest in politics, fairness and especially any conflict with regular Russian forces. They are doing the job, they want to get paid, but instead of the paycheck the latest adventure is likely to stamp them with "treason".
B) New cannon fodder, hired from poor regions for decent (for their area) money after the invasion. They are not experienced fighters and they suffered greatly in Bakhmut. This is not your coup makers. Putin tells them to come home, they will.
C) Prison rabble, taken from prisons often with 10+ year of their sentence remaining. Their contract is that if they survive a 6-month tour they get remaining sentence voided. There are a lot of them. Getting killed in Bakhmut was a part of the contract. But this march gives them nothing. Instead of walking free they will likely end up back in prison, with new scars. If Russian army offers to honor the original contract (freedom for a 6-month tour), they will just as happily fight for it.
I do not think there is any desire at Wagner to fight the Russian army. In fact this may be a theater, designed in Kremlin to tighten the screws at home and as a side benefit to snuff out Prigozhin who seems to be getting unhinged lately. But we shall see...
I'll also say this, Putin played his hand as poorly as humanly possible. He spent decades stockpiling loyalty and political capital with an iron fist and spent it all in less two years and has absolutely nothing to show for it. I think it's time to admit that beneath his steely-eyed, stoic demeanor he isn't half as smart as he's been given credit for.
It’s just part of the game
He even spread lies about Ukrainian bio weapons (WMDs!) in an echo of the Iraq war buildup BS.
Someone should have told him that Iraq was a disaster for the US and is now widely regarded as such by most of DC (whether or not they say it in public).
Russia has lost over 100k in a year and effectively destroyed their economy and place in the world outside of nukes, all for basically no reason.
Not sure about the origin but it may be one of the “famous last words” list jokes. Other famous last words I remember included “watch this” and “I got this bro.”
It's more like he's trying to save Putin's by saying "the war was not his [Putin's] fault.
Nothing to do with a culture war vortex. Burying your head in sand is not necessarily the smartest option although I understand that it is the easiest one.
There's a difference between not wanting to interact with this news, and not wanting to interact with this news on this forum.
You can simply not click that link. I don't think that I've hidden/misrepresented or clickbaited the title to force you to click... You may not want to interact, others may.
A major portion of Russia's de facto military, led by one of the country's most prominent figures, has left Ukraine and is heading for Moscow. This is history happening right in front of us. If HN was around in 1989, would the fall of the Berlin Wall have been [flagged] too?
It's simply not the proper venue because the policy admits so much distain and misunderstanding of politics that it can't effectively carve out a proper space for such discussion.
And further, the policy admits it cannot trust either participants or the voting system in place to manage such conversations. As soon as one person with power to flag, that's it.
These conversations inevitably make HN management nervous. Since they can't cope with it, no one else is allowed to.
Dong will tell you that this subject attracts flamewars, but then again I think he's just parroting what someone else told him and has really examined how people in HN actually discuss the subject.
This is the riptide. And Wagner surprisingly still has 20k - 30k soldiers. Even if it fizzles, this is a landmark in the war.
Also who knows what will happen in Belarus and Chechnya as there are anti-estblishment forces that have been waiting for quite some time for an opportunity to strike.
Either way this has huge potential to grow into something similar as happend to USSR.
That's why I posted it in the first place.
This is just way outside of the HN wheelhouse. The guidelines are pretty clear.
History of nations & psychology & huge geopolitical changes is indeed something I find very interesting. And I think I'm not alone as I don't believe that hackers have to be interested only in tech and nothing else.
For what it’s worth, dang has commented on this specific event in more detail here [0] and addresses the curiosity piece.
Bottom line: all discussion about this event at this point will be made of speculation and hot takes, because we have very little solid info about the unfolding situation.
Saying that you cannot have conversation about this just reeks of a poorly veiled elitism.
Dang also said that "There hasn't been a coup" in thad thread you link to which leads me to believe he has no idea what is going on and what is at stake here or he simply does not care. Which is fine, but to say that there is nothing to discuss is just ... wrong.
On the topic itself -- this war, and the world reaction to it, is a critical part of modern history and will likely influence political, military and technological developments for years to come. I would love to hear more smart people express an opinion on it. Flagging greatly limits this.
Edit: note that the TASS coverage is far more up-to-date in russian than english. (protip: translate.yandex.com) Новость дополняется. https://tass.ru/delo-v-otnoshenii-prigozhina-ob-organizacii-...
Hackernewsers knows well I am extremely anti-Russian.
The West massively misunderstands Russia, and how it works on the inside. If you watch CSIS, RAND, Aspen institute, you will see 10 talking heads each talking his own completely different story, and none of them tells more than a Russian highschooler can.
Seeing Westerners instinctively reaching for "the best known source" tells why something like this came as a surprise in the first place, while this exact scenario been a watercooler talk for most Russians, both in Ukraine, and Russia itself.
Why Western experts driving the conversation on Russia, China, etc are completely blind to things known to every highschooler?
The reason is they are all having near zero personal experience outside politics, but Russia has no politics as such. None of them had that visceral back alley survival experience, which shape you for life.
> Why Western experts driving the conversation on Russia, China, etc are completely blind to things known to every highschooler?
I’m not sure I follow you here. You’re saying that Westerners don’t understand things even known to high schoolers in Russia. I believe you.
But then you say it’s because we try and find the best source for our information, and that also seems true. But it also seems like you’re saying that that’s the wrong course of action?
It reads like you’re telling us that our sources aren’t good enough, but also complaining that we’re trying to find good sources.
At any rate, I don’t happen to know any Russian high schoolers, so I have no way of asking them directly what it is that they talk about at the watercooler. I’d ask you, but that would just be me instinctively reaching for another “best known source”.
Instead of finding domain experts and giving them communications training and a platform to reach an audience, we instead find people with nothing useful to share, and give them journalism degrees.
Journalism should be an activity that our most knowledgeable people do, not our least.
Good journalism is hard. Being a domain expert in some area doesn’t naturally translate into a talent or passion for journalism or public outreach.
Overall, I do agree with you. I just think it’s easier said than done. I’d say the legacy blue checks were often an example of what you’re describing—but those are now meaningless for evaluating if someone is a domain expert.
Is it a stretch to suppose that Prigozhin is sparing whatever valuable men and material he has left? He has been openly recruiting Russian prisoners to fight for Wagner in Ukraine; I would venture the supposition that he is sending them to die and keeping back the men and equipment who might have a future in some other endeavor. [...] In the overall logic that I am describing, rivals would seek to conserve whatever fighting forces they have, either to protect their own personal interests during an unpredictable time, or to make a play for Moscow.
And of course, no citation ever given. Every Russian is woke and we’re just ignorant.
Every western expert everywhere has been saying forever that Putin wasn’t going anywhere until someone in the defense arena had enough to take on the security state. And it won’t matter how it turns out, as the new Vlad will be the same as the old Vlad.
We know all we need to know abput Russia. A people without agency looking for a new daddy.
Except for the specific timing, it didn’t, really. The spiralling conflict between Prigozhin and the military establishment has been heavily covered in Western media, that a catastrophic breach was a likely eventuality has been talked about by Western experts for a while, and was seen as particularly likely with the recent move to consolidate control of the PMCs under MoD command, which was viewed as directed very much at Prigozhin specifically.
Some armored vehicles were put on the streets of Moscow and Rostov (which is located near the border with Ukraine), but that's about it.
Edit… Also reports of fighting between Wagner and russia's national guard on the Rostov-Moscow highway. Wagner are on the move towards Moscow.
Source?
Yeah, but its 1,000 freeway km, with no substantial existing prepared defenses short of the forces deployed in Moscow as part of the emergency plan that’s been activated, not 1,000 km defended like Bakhmut where every meter takes an eternity and extracts a high price. Its maybe a day or so away, which gives no meaningful time for mobilization and defensive deployments that would slow down ang advance.
Prigozhin may have bit off more than he can chew unless there are immediate mass defections to his side (or at least mass refusals to engage against Wagner), but there’s unlikely to be anything meaningful stopping him from reaching Moscow with whatever forces he decides to send.
I’ve seen a video that appears to support the idea that a helicopter was at least fired at.
OSINT community has been doing a stellar job with visual confirmation of Russian losses.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki
Our assault brigades see everything, systematic strikes are now being carried out on the positions of the Russians.
You would hear the radio broadcast of these ** now.
The impression is that part of the Russian regular troops are killing their own, and it seems that part of the military is supporting Prigozhin. While it is not clear what is finally happening, it is a bloodbath"
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672329674729373696
"Just now, the Head of General staff gave the order to raise planes and open fire at columns moving through civilian cars, through trucks. He doesn’t care whom to kill. They’ve been killing own civilians for 1,5 years now instead of fighting with the enemy.
I want to say thank you to the pilots who, as it just became known, refused to obey criminal orders."
Audio: https://t.co/ASUwhevnMw
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672387845749702658
> Все генералы, которые с трясущимися руками обращаются к музыкантам с призывами остановиться уже фактически подписали себе приговор. Трибунал обязательно будет. Суровикин еще ответит за сдачу Херсона.
> (Google Translate) All the generals who, with trembling hands, appeal to the musicians to stop, have actually signed their own sentence. There will be a tribunal. Surovikin will still answer for the surrender of Kherson.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16723584970679705...
Wagner's command is competent. The recent border incursions show Russia is lightly fortified, possibly Moscow, too. The wild card would appear to be the FSB. Do they tend ultranationalist? Or will they be loyal to Shoigu?
The best way to ensure his own safety at this point is a coup.
He still may think that gives him better odds than not attempting the coup does, under current conditions...
But it remains to be seen whether or not Prigozhin would try to topple Putin or merely the army leadership in order to put himself in command of the war. The video statement I saw him make [1] would suggest he’s intending to gain control of Putin but keep him as a figurehead.
These took months if not years to prepare, even with domestic ones.
https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1672380562697330692
Also: https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1672381234150887425
So this may very well be the final fight between the two.
Prigozhin has an army, one which is vital to Putin's war effort. Do you really think Prigozhin wouldn't turn on Putin given the opportunity?
Ina traditional coup on MONDAY at 3 am soldiers roll into the TV stations and various government buildings. They announcing a change of government and people turn up to work Monday morning.
On Friday evening?! They must be copying the failed Turkey coup that had to move forwards because they were uncovered.
This is a military coup. The army is in Zaporizhia. Moscow is defended by the FSB and national guard. Prigozhin needs to rally disgruntled forces to his side to enable him to move his troops. Quietly maneuvering would hand the narrative to the regime.
Might as well see the world end in style.
Ah, yes, all 3 regiments, none left in Moscow.
Nobody said Moscow is undefended. Just less able to defend itself than usual. Much of the Russian Western military district is deployed towards Ukraine. Sensibly, Putin’s most loyal should have been held back. But the war is going terribly. If his loyalists were forward deployed, that changes the calculus.
The 1st Guards Tank Army, which includes the elite units traditionally tasked with Moscow's defense, the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division and the 4th Guards Tank Division has been heavily committed in Ukraine for most of the war.
There is a defensive plan activated and deployment of forces in Moscow, sure, but Wagner has a lot of troops and combat experience, and what Russia has kept available at home mostly aren’t regular army troops, but Nationa Guard troops mainly used for intimidating civilians.
3% is not enough to keep the lights in a country this big.
It's no question where are the most but 3%? Doubt it.
There are different kinds of blows directed at leadership that work primarily by surprise seizure or elimonation of key personnel and/or facilities, perhaps the most traditional “military coup”.
There are mass mutinies by military formations, which are essentially armed direct-action protests by troops, often under their established leadership. A sizable formation declaring them and calling on others to join is not at all unheard of. Functionally, they can succeed as a form of coup or half-coup (replacing the top leadership or forcing concessions) while retaining the basic state infrastructure, or end up as a key part of a more complete revolution (or, obviously, just fail). They are a very real historical thing.
I've heard multiple times that the "Wagner" group has actually been set up by the FSB and that this Prigozhin character is just a front man. Which makes sense, because how would a single individual set up such a large military organization?
It is possible that the troops have become loyal to him. They'd still have to fight the entire Russian, Chechen, Belarus, ... armies.
Why the psyop? Last time that guy made compromising videos was shortly before the fall of Bakhmut as a distraction. For all we know he is still FSB.
But if you and I can figure that out in five minutes from around the world it’s unlikely that battle-hardened war leaders will fall for a trap.
> information appeared that several units, including the 45th brigade, refused to leave the barracks against Wagner. By the way, in the Airborne Forces they always sympathized with Prigozhin, - VChK-OGPU
"The most promising politician appeals to the National Guard (Rosgvardia) with an offer that is better not refused. Obeying criminal orders and attempting to interfere with the planned campaign of Justice will end badly for employees who have made the wrong choice."
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672364086812606470
Prigozhin admits the reasons for invading Ukraine were bullshit from Russia: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672177488535977984
Sad to see how many people supported an invasion and slaughter of so many people because of what the Russian state says about things like NATO. Hope this is a wake up call.
If you want to follow the unfolding events, Crowdstrike founder, https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch is a qualified and educated source (predicted invasion 3 months before)
When one of the commanders realizes they're physically between the army and the unguarded palace.
https://t-me.translate.goog/s/Ateobreaking?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr...
Bakhmut was a meat grinder, but as long as the hope of victory could be kept alive in the Ukrainian army, they would keep sending their troops to slaughter. So we got all of these videos about chaos & ammo running out on the Russian side. And the Ukrainians obligingly poured manpower into an almost-perfectly-surrounded killbox. Saw how that turned out.
I'd bet its the same deal with the current offensive, which has been similarly ruinous for Ukraine.
Truthfully, no one really knows how many died (on either side), but Wagner stayed in the field vs 50-odd Ukr. brigades. How do you reconcile that with a favourable casualty ratio?
How many videos have you watched from the front?
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16723944954243563...
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1672429121278705666?t=...
But yea, Prigozhin has been hinting that he considers civil war an option when he commented on the retreat from Bakhmut: “we will leave on the 10th of May, and we will wait until the Russian people need us, which we believe is going to happen really soon if you look at how our leaders are acting.”[0]
From my armchair, it doesn't look like a bunch of mercenaries could meaningfully operate within Russia. They'd need decisive support from branches of the regular army. So the question is whether he has alliances. As long as they haven't revealed themselves, this will stay cold. Or Prigozhin will die real quick.
[0] https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-clans-war-russia-interview-suc...
What's going on?
On theory is that if he's arrested and tried in Russia he's mostly ineligible for war crime trial in the future.
Taking what we're seeing at face value, Prigozhin is credibly threatening to march on Moscow. He isn't announcing anything in advance, he's using public channels to sway leaders to his side.
> VKontakte blocked Prigozhin's statement on the basis of the decision of the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation
That’s what keeps occurring to me.
His fate was obvious from he beginning but he went there with such impediment that's quite strange he's stil' breathing.
My question is how this relates to the words “The Prince” ? Is that a reference to Machiavelli? Or Prince Myshkin from Dostoyevsky or some other Prince? A novel, a poem… I just want to know what in particular the words “the prince” refer to here?
He advices the Prince to secretly send a general there and execute everyone in some cities without exception.
Then he advices him to execute the general for being "rogue", overly zealous, and punish him for what he did.
The Prince is strong, so there can't be a rebellion. The prince is just too, he can't allow bloodbaths against his beloved subjects... etc.
I don't know for sure what the heck they're doing there, but this man doesn't seem to be aware of being a pawn.
They can say later that it was a deception whatsoever but he's still a pawn.
I am getting popcorn.
I'm trying to add more info but it is (as one might expect) quite chaotic right now.
/jk
Something is clearly happening, but it's hard to tell exactly what. Fog of war and all that.
And then, if the plan to cut off Crimea succeeds, they could try to negotiate with Russia - on much stronger terms.
I don't know, when the board changes you look for openings. On the military side, I would use the distraction to extract battlefield gains. On the diplomatic side, maybe Putin is willing to give up more, now, than he (or his successor) will later.
I imagine that territory could be the Bryansk, Kursk, Bilhorod, Rostov, and Krasnodar oblasts.
He's also saying the war was a mistake.
Prigozhin's base is ultranationalist–that's what's propelling him now. If he succeeds in taking the reins of the state, his base and thus incentives shift. The new rhetoric may reflect him realizing he's closer to that than anyone realized.
You realise he's off his rocker, right? The stopped clock has just been momentarily right.
There is no situation where it is a good idea that a mercenary army leader whose staff are criminals takes power over a nuclear-armed state.
Do we really expect Putin to manage a peaceful transfer of power? Devil you know, and all that.
Russian army is tied at the front, can’t leave it to protect the government.
Wagners are very angry at RU MoD and above for all the betrayals and missteps (art. ammo supply, surrenders, etc.)
RU public is tired of the war and disappointed in Putin (but can’t voice that because of laws that say you will go to jail for just showing UA flag).
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wagner-chief-declares...
Anything that goes against the dogma will get shut down?
What's the veracity of this article to begin with?
In the age of digital transformation, what are the chances we are reading fake news from the Ukrainian front?
They attack each other? well, if they killed some russians and stole their missiles, it's easy to create confusion on the adversary camp, capture a general, train a model and spread fake news with deep fakes etc etc
Until we get a proper source, we can only speculate
Few days ago reports were saying that the counter offensive was a complete failure, so who to trust? where is the truth?
Edit: Quick followup, NY Time has it top of the fold. Russia is accusing Wagner of fomenting a coup and the Kremlin is deploying armor to the streets of Moscow. This isn't definitely happening but it's a credible story.
Why would leading figures on the russian side lie about their own failures?
When war criminal and terrorist Igor Girkin admits that russia has no chance to win, why would he lie?
I am not sorry to break the charm, but there is "SOMETHING" about it on Russian Television. You can't believe all details, but now both parts (East and West) are reporting that this is happening.