Russia investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack | Hacker News Reader

Russia investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack

theguardian.com

35 pointslevleontiev12 comments

The submitted title broke the site guidelines badly ("A civil war in Russia has begun"). The rule is: "Please use the original title, unless it is misleading or linkbait; don't editorialize." - https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

If you want to say what you think is important about an article, that's fine, but do it by adding a comment to the thread. Then your view will be on a level playing field with everyone else's: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so...

A man with a private army on campaign is clashing with ineffective and humiliated political leadership back home, while trying to win popular support?

When does he cross the Rubicon?

Cynically put, when he is no longer convenient for Putin to keep around.

In another sense - he's a minor warlord, with ~50,000 armed followers, in a huge country. He controls ~zero of the infrastructure, air forces, etc. which would be needed for him to mount even an obviously-doomed bid to topple Putin.

On that note, here's a new development: https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war-russia-nuclear-647a54...

Actual Title: "Wagner chief accuses Russia’s military of attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped"

Reaction: Zzz. It's yet more belligerent squabbling between the same old Russian military leaders/organizations - who are all very obviously beholden to Putin. That's been going on for a year or more now. It both helps Putin look good, and helps keep in securely in power. Hardly news, and hardly worth a skim.

Here's the title I see: "Russia’s security service investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’"

(Ditto for me, now. Previous title is still in the URL.)

This is definitely different. The FSB is involved and Putin is speaking. Prigozhin has stepped over the line and is being brought to heel. Looks like he is going down swinging. Doesn't seem like a wise decision on his part as he doesn't seem to hold many cards.

It’s hard to be sure, but to me, this indeed is a step up from what happened before.

The BBC also is fairly clear, saying (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66005256):

“Wagner mercenary boss says Russia bombed his troops”

“In a statement, the Russian defence ministry said that "all reports by Prigozhin spread on social media" of Russian strikes on Wagner camps were "not true and are an information provocation".

Russian state media also reports that the FSB, Russia's security services, have opened a criminal case against Prigozhin, accusing him of "calling for an armed rebellion".

The Wagner Group is a paramilitary organisation that has been fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. In recent months, Prigozhin has become increasingly vocal in his criticism of Russia's military leadership.

In an audio message posted to the social media platform Telegram, he said "the evil which the Russian military leadership carries must be stopped". "Those who killed our lads, and tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers [in the war in Ukraine] will be punished," he said.

"I ask you not to resist. Anyone who does will be considered a threat and destroyed. That goes for any checkpoints and aviation on our way. "Presidential power, the government, the police and Russian guard will work as usual.

"This is not a military coup, but a march of justice, our actions do not interfere with the troops in any way."”

I'd give no more than maybe a bit different. The FSB opening "a criminal case for armed mutiny" sounds cool, but is certainly not what would happen early in any actual armed mutiny or civil war. (Actual military forces would have to violently put down the uprising first, no?)

Note late in the article:

> While the warlord was careful not to directly attack the Russian president...

...yeah. If he can barely bring himself to speak unflattering words about a few minor decisions by Putin - that sure-as-bleep does not qualify as an "armed mutiny". Let alone a "civil war".

Definitely different. Prigozhin is accusing the Russian Military of firing on Wagner. Says he's going to take those responsible into custody. The FSB getting involved and the Kremlin commenting is Putin moving against him.

Seems mildly serious. Reports of checkpoints going up around Moscow and the security services going on alert. Don't really see how Prigozhin wins this but I suppose stranger things have happened.

> who are all very obviously beholden to Putin

Wrong.

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