The Prigozhin Coup seems pretty damn well organized
phillipspobrien.substack.com
phillipspobrien.substack.com
The fact that this hasn't even come to my mind yet baffles me. It's such a logical explanation as to what has been going on between prigogine and the RU regime in the previous weeks...
Imagine the scene : a conglomerate of ukranian mobsters, russian oligarchs, and CIA agents, around the table with Prigogine in a secret location in Dombass, nearby the front line, talking about the tag to put on Putin's head.
I want Quentin Tarantino to shoot that scene !!
Yes, they're mercenaries, but they're largely Russian mercenaries, subject to much of the same propaganda. Prigozhin's people don't just blindly follow. Granted, Russia did a lot of the convincing for them it seems with lack of support and alleged friendly fire incidents, but still. The reason this wasn't really an option on the proverbial table is because things had to get bad enough first for Russia/it's mercs to even acknowledge that table existed. Afterall, keep in mind who these people are, and how many countless and considerable, merited justification the western powers sitting at that table have to drag their ass to court and/or a firing line.
Keep in mind, dropping fat stacks on said table doesn't mean much to a Russian in Russia in the current climate if those stacks are American dollars (and the recipient wishes to remain within the Russian sphere of influence, and promises of payment upon completion are less compelling than cash that can be spent upfront to pay for a coup for example). And it might be hard for foreign powers to come up with enough rubles that would both be worth it and wouldn't throw up a lot of red flags before hand. Now, if anyone can do it, it's the alleged shadowy figures we're alluding to here, but the ultimate point is that such a thing is not something that happens quick, or easy, or when things are going "good" for the people you're trying to turn traitor.
The reality is this hasn't happened because it's a whole lot more complicated than simply showing up with enough cash in your pocket, because even that alone is a huge undertaking all thing considered.
For the record I don't necessarily think this is the primary impetus for the coup, but I'd be shocked if there weren't very serious powers making serious efforts to achieve something like this, and as a result, likely had non-trivial influence here. I highly doubt it's as simple as Wagner just getting bought out though. If anything I'd say this as much opportunism and initiative by Prigozhin himself as it as any foreign powers work.
EDIT: Think I had a stroke typing this originally, cleaned up all the typos, sorry.
I’ve been wondering what China has been doing. It seems very plausible to imagine them making some overtures along the lines of “keep Russia stable and exporting resources to us and we’ll recognize your government and make you phenomenally rich”. He’s a nationalist but also keenly aware of how expensive a military force is so he must have some idea of a path to legitimacy.
same here. this options opens up an entire world of possibilities.
The higher bidder may not be too hard to find.
He was possibly thinking he was also being set up as a fall guy...
Two take aways: The Russian invaison of Ukraine was among the most stupid ideas of the 21st century. And Ukraine is playing this whole thing incredibly well.
Prigozhin coup attempt is just too clean which looked almost like a well scripted play. I wait a bit longer to access this. For now just treat it as another drama plot in ongoing SMO. Kiev should be more concern now Wagner is in Belarus with closer striking range to Kiev than at Bakhmut.
They are the best at preparing the terrain, and have the advantage of being backed by US elite troops for sabotage and assassination, but each time they were involved in a regime change (or even invasion planning), they were caught.
As that old saying goes: "When you do things right, people won't be sure that you have done anything at all."
No, in its core it is a war of Putin and like minded nationalists longing after Great Russia against the Ukrainian people and their right to exist as an independent country, not being slaves like Lukashenko's Belarus. The whole Europe is helping because they know Putin's victory in Ukraine would mean an existential threat to other territories. And most people just want to live in peace.
History really does repeat itself.
It's more likely that Prigozhin: wanted to topple military leadership, but Putin chose their side, so he has no other option to go after Putin; sees a window of opportunity to topple Putin and replace him; or is simply paid by a higher bidder.
That said, in such unstable situations pretty much anything can happen. It depends on how rational the actors stay.
Since then this guy was one of Putins favorite oligarchs. The state gave him money which he used to start more companies, eventually developing state within state. One of his conpanies was major catering provider for Russian government, administration, schools and the army. He runs dozens of companies, including media companies running paper and internet press. He is also known to be behind part of russian propaganda and public opinion influence operation in western internet. It was noted that some hyper-active polish-speaking twitter accounts that were famously anti-ukraine have gone silent in last two days - the suspection is that those belonged to his troll farms that Kremlin has seized.
Wagner group was his latest enterprise and fighting wars around the world made him even richer, but he is not a mercenary. He is an oligarch who got too powerful and Kremlin is now trying to strike him down. He’s a brigand turned convenience store clerk who by some means took control on whole network of those stores which led him open his own restaurant and then Putin elevated into oligarch because he though that his debt to him will make him forever loyal.
Russia's prestige has been fatally damaged. This is not a world leading nation, Global South has likely noted. But it is worrying that this turn of events increases the likelihood of runway escalations on various fronts.
I'm suggesting that lots of people act a way, and then they change for a job. If he wanted the leader of Russia job and had to act nicer to the west to keep it, well, that's a possibility.
regardless of if that's true, Prigozhin is not that "softer, friendlier" guy.
It's likely more internally focussed and not about us - don't make the mistake of thinking of the West as the main character here. More likely, it's about who would _Russia_ support, and reaching the opposite conclusion about what kind of leader they want.
I think its the opposite: Prigozhin fears for his life. He is dead if he ”surrenders," but he has a slim chance to live if he defies the Russian military.
My impression from Russian journalists is that this is a theme in Russia.
Also, near-suicidal gambles look more appealing when someone has no better options.