Comment by Matl | Hacker News Reader

Comment by Matl | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

There are many, many explanations for i.e. why didn't China attack Taiwan (yet) and while the U.S. finger in the region helps in some ways, supporting Taiwan proclaiming independence for example may actually not be helping to prevent war there. It seems to me like China is much more reluctant than Russia is to go to such a war, probably because apart from facing domestic nationalistic pressure to do so, there's little actual reason and China does not really want to have its (in Chinese memory) recent expansion of the middle class stopped by facing isolation. Even the Chinese government responds to popular pressure by simply adjusting its policy more often than deploying tanks.

With regards to Russia, Putin, (being a Russian neocon), is using the example of how Russians are sometimes treated in former Soviet countries with regards to citizenship, speaking Russian etc., as well as Ukraine say banning Russian language books or the Russian flag being banned at sports events, which actually helps his cause domestically. If we were actually interested in weakening his grip, we'd strongly oppose such policies imo.

Chinese are extremely risk averse. They will eventually invade Taiwan but only when the odds are extremely in their favor. The Russian invasion of Ukraine showed them that they need to prepare better. I wouldn't be surprised if their economy collapses/stagnates before this day even comes.

> I wouldn't be surprised if their economy collapses/stagnates before this day even comes.

As predicted every year for the past 15 years.

"as well as Ukraine say banning Russian language books"

Russian language, and Russian books are not banned in Ukraine. Some anti Ukraine books were removed from public libraries.

Banned, no. But thanks to the 2019 law they are suppressed in the public sphere to a significant degree.

What does “suppressed in the public sphere” mean in this context? The books are either banned or not. People are free in Ukraine to read and posses Russian books. You can sit in a coffee shop in Kyiv with a Russian book, while speaking Russian to a friend and be perfectly fine.

What does “suppressed in the public sphere” mean in this context?

Information about the law is very easy to find. If the topic interests you it may be worth your while to have a look.

The books are either banned or not.

Or there's a greyscale. Like you know, most things in life.

Again, do yourself a favor and look into the law and what it does. I could explain, but you need to at least do some of the work yourself here rather than just speculate into the air about the state of things in some far away country.

I'm not being snarky. It just seems weird to me that, having been given perfectly sufficient context to answer the question all by yourself ("2019 law") -- the only impulse you seem to have is to sit back and speculate.

You have made a lot of incorrect assumptions about me, so I will stop participating in this discussion. For anyone else reading this please know that if you visit Ukraine you can bring with you a book in Russian or in any other language. Furthermore feel free to walk into a local bookstore and purchase a book in Russian.

And from where does this isolation come from? I think you are contradicting a little with yourself here.

It comes from it attacking Taiwan unprovoked, but there's no need for large U.S. presence for that to already not be attractive as it would be a huge blow for China in the economic realm and even include the Global South. On the other hand, Taiwan declaring independence on U.S. encouragement for example could be spun by China as protecting its stated red lines and acting out despite U.S. presence in the region.

You may not know this, but Russia enjoys some sympathy in the Global South because they see the situation as being at least partly provoked by the U.S. The same could happen over Taiwan, but it doesn't have to if cooler heads prevail.

Not from "what" but from "where" is the question. If there was no Western opposition to the attack, there wouldn't be no isolation.

The fact that Russia has received some sympathy shows how important is to express the situation correctly - Russia was not provoked by anything. They would have attacked either way because they consider these lands theirs and the people who live there at best as nothing. The thinking goes - those countries they attack will greet them as liberators or they are the worst enemies that must be eliminated (e.g. Nazis).

Now I can understand that some countries have strong anti-US sentiment, but reason for the whole war has a very little to do with US despite Russia's huge effort to make it appear to be the cause.

Why is there 'anti-US sentiment' in the Global South?

Why is there for example anti-US sentiment in Russia? Because it's beneficial for its leader(s) to cultivate and magnify it.

I am sure this is the case and that US history of coups in countries of the Global South has absolutely nothing to do with any potential sentiments there.

Thinking non-Westerners can't think for themselves isn't helping sentiments there either I'd imagine.

And these things had nothing to do with Russians sticking their noses everywhere and trying to implement their communist genocide over all the world? How many victims of communism is there? I mean, how many millions, sorry, tens of millions is there?

Reply on news.ycombinator.com