Comment by genman | Hacker News Reader

Comment by genman | Hacker News Reader

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I think you completely misinterpret the situation with Russia and China.

Russia and China have the objectives of their own. For Russia it is to expand their empire that in their own mind rightfully belongs to them. They didn't attack Ukraine because of US actions but because they seriously believe that they have some kind of right over Ukrainians lands, or even more seriously, that Ukrainians don't exists.

If US would have been in Ukraine, or moved in rapidly when the situation became dangerous, there wouldn't be war at them moment. We see this clearly play out in far east, where China has ambition to overtake Taiwan (what they like Russia with Ukraine believe to belong rightfully to themselves). They clearly would have already attacked if it wasn't clear that US will prevent them doing so.

I'm certain that they would have done it, had US backed away from Ukraine. I'm also certain that what led Russia to believe that they could pull off Ukrainian invasion, was the US departure from Afghanistan, not that they did it but how they did it by letting Taliban completely humiliate them without any response. Russia believed that US is weak, not interested, and it would possibly have been like that, had Ukraine not managed to pull off very strong response.

US is there to fill the vacuum. If it was not US, it would be China (or it could Russia possibly). If not today, then eventually it would be one of them. I prefer US because it is more predictable and rule based and in the long run more favorable for the people.

No, you're misrepresenting it. Your rationale is that Russia is an evil empire trying to expand its borders to its former glory, and that's why it attacked Ukraine... a primary school level of simplification.

You ignore that Russia's number one fear after the collapse of the USSR was for another military invasion from the West, as had happened several times over the last few centuries... that Russia's border with Ukraine is its most "porous" border, easy to cross for whatever purpose, including a military invasion... that NATO's whole purpose since it was founded has always been to counter Russia, so the Russian's fears that NATO is an enemy are absolutely correct... that Ukraine's Euromaidan revolution caused Ukraine to go from a neutral country (or a buffer country as most people call it) to being actively hostile against Russia, which was the trigger for the Crimean invasion in 2014... that the US and UK, as guarantors of the Budapest Agreement with Russian and Ukraine, should have immediately intervened to defend Ukraine when that happened, but did absolutely nothing, giving Russia confirmation that it would be able to keep Ukraine out of NATO by force, which is really what it is trying to do currently... and finally, that every country has its motivations to do the things it does, a lot more complex and subtle than "being evil and wanting more land", and perhaps trying to understand what those motivations are, why their culture has evolved the way it has and how it is likely to react to your actions, would go a very long way to avoiding stupid conflicts like this. But yeah, it's so much easier to keep parroting the news and thinking of the whole story as a black-and-white, villain VS hero story.

You could have made your point without accusing anyone of parroting „the media“. Russia has agreed to the borders of Ukraine in 1993 and from then on 2 more times. They have onesidedly broken the agreement and attacked a peaceful neighbour, no commitment to not joining NATO has been granted. These are facts you can easily look up, no need to come up with made up security concerns which have been no problem a decade earlier.

It's worth noting that the agreements that guarantee Ukraine's borders also guarantee Russia's access to their black sea military bases in the Chimera.

Nothing like this has been granted to Russia. It was a time limited lease, like HK from China. Russia also unilaterally broke these agreements in 2014.

"Russia's number one fear after the collapse of the USSR was for another military invasion from the West[...]"

Nice, Russia is just defending itself. Excuse me i need to go laugh out loud somewhere

Yes, Russia is not expanding, it's defending it's borders. I'm well familiar with the endless bullshit that is coming from Russia including this one.

Well, Russia is an evil empire trying to expand its borders to its former glory. If you haven't understood this by now then it's not meaningful to continue this discussion with you.

Even if we adopt the moral relativism and stop calling Russia "evil"... still, the fact remains that it is an empire trying to expand its borders to its former glory.

Well, they are evil, we just can't ignore that. If calling to murder millions of people is commonly tolerated public discourse then what else are they?

You can both be right at the same time. It is true Russia was invaded several times over the last few centuries. It is also true that Russia have invaded and annexed many countries over the last few centuries. Evil empires also get invaded once in a while.

Sometimes, when everyone else is hostile to you, it can make sense to consider that maybe... just maybe... you might be doing something that triggers their anger. Like, what possible reason might the countries of Eastern Europe have to hate Russia? What possible reason might Ukraine specifically have to hate Russia? Does "Holodomor" ring a bell?

It is ironic that the countries of Warsaw Pact were more likely to be invaded by Warsaw Pact than by NATO.

> trying to understand what those motivations are, why their culture has evolved the way it has and how it is likely to react to your actions

But when we do exactly this, you call it "parroting the news".

> Sometimes, when everyone else is hostile to you

Anthromorphizing, just another symptom of the human mind’s inability to really comprehend things as complex as geopolitics. We’re not meant for this, people! Technology has complexified our simple and beautiful world.

We understand the "geopolitics" very well. We also understand that pretender, that Russia is, always has been and always will be.

We’re not meant to understand any of that. It doesn’t mean a few people devoting their lifes to it can be familiar with a fraction of the actual depth of such complex subjects.

https://youtu.be/o1vX03h7w9c

It's much simpler. People in Ukraine, and everwhere in Eastern Europe compare the future that Russia offers them, and the future the West offers them. I'm sure some are swayed by high minded theoretical ideas, but not many.

They choose the West. We all know why. Money you could say, but it's more something like "a better life". And yes, the Holodomor is part of this. That came from the east. Something else starting with "Holo" also came, but from the West.

But if Maidan proved anything, it's that the West offers Ukrane a better life, in the mind of Ukranians, a better Future. It's not really about history. And, of course, this government will not let that go.

You can say the same about everyone from Estonia to, really, even Turkey (I mean, at this point they're seriously insulted by the West ... but not nearly insulted enough to choose Russia's side).

And Russia is afraid. They're "locked in" with impossible to defend borders. They're not friends with the West ... and they're not quite insane enough to imagine China is their friend either. So the idea that Putin initially defended, that without a "buffer zone": countries that will fight or at least obstruct the west, Russia cannot avoid losing large amounts of territory very quickly if it comes to an open conflict, from either side. And they cannot really project power over the sea, without approval from either Europe or China either (or if the Arctic melts, with US agreement). They're fucked, or at least, you have to admit there's a logic there.

You are completely right and I highly recommend to watch "The Putin interviews" by Oliver Stone to those who disagree. America is trying to drive Europe and Russia away, just to defend a collapsing empire. The sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline ($10B) began long before it was blown up and the Ukraine war has deep roots and consequences to Europe. The EU is just one of the Sauron's rings of power, it's not Europa.

You are full of you know what and so is Oliver Stone. What next, you quote Steven Seagal? I'm sorry, but Russia is a genocidal Nazi state. If you have not realized this by now then you haven't paid enough attention.

Your rationale is that Russia is an evil empire trying to expand its borders to its former glory, and that's why it attacked Ukraine... a primary school level of simplification.

Disagree. Replace "evil empire" with "Old-school imperialist power" and you have a 90 percent approximation to the essential truth about that country (or its current leadership, in any case). For all its banality.

Though "evil" of course is not a misplaced word to use either, in regard to its actions.

There are many, many explanations for i.e. why didn't China attack Taiwan (yet) and while the U.S. finger in the region helps in some ways, supporting Taiwan proclaiming independence for example may actually not be helping to prevent war there. It seems to me like China is much more reluctant than Russia is to go to such a war, probably because apart from facing domestic nationalistic pressure to do so, there's little actual reason and China does not really want to have its (in Chinese memory) recent expansion of the middle class stopped by facing isolation. Even the Chinese government responds to popular pressure by simply adjusting its policy more often than deploying tanks.

With regards to Russia, Putin, (being a Russian neocon), is using the example of how Russians are sometimes treated in former Soviet countries with regards to citizenship, speaking Russian etc., as well as Ukraine say banning Russian language books or the Russian flag being banned at sports events, which actually helps his cause domestically. If we were actually interested in weakening his grip, we'd strongly oppose such policies imo.

And from where does this isolation come from? I think you are contradicting a little with yourself here.

It comes from it attacking Taiwan unprovoked, but there's no need for large U.S. presence for that to already not be attractive as it would be a huge blow for China in the economic realm and even include the Global South. On the other hand, Taiwan declaring independence on U.S. encouragement for example could be spun by China as protecting its stated red lines and acting out despite U.S. presence in the region.

You may not know this, but Russia enjoys some sympathy in the Global South because they see the situation as being at least partly provoked by the U.S. The same could happen over Taiwan, but it doesn't have to if cooler heads prevail.

Not from "what" but from "where" is the question. If there was no Western opposition to the attack, there wouldn't be no isolation.

The fact that Russia has received some sympathy shows how important is to express the situation correctly - Russia was not provoked by anything. They would have attacked either way because they consider these lands theirs and the people who live there at best as nothing. The thinking goes - those countries they attack will greet them as liberators or they are the worst enemies that must be eliminated (e.g. Nazis).

Now I can understand that some countries have strong anti-US sentiment, but reason for the whole war has a very little to do with US despite Russia's huge effort to make it appear to be the cause.

Why is there 'anti-US sentiment' in the Global South?

Why is there for example anti-US sentiment in Russia? Because it's beneficial for its leader(s) to cultivate and magnify it.

I am sure this is the case and that US history of coups in countries of the Global South has absolutely nothing to do with any potential sentiments there.

Thinking non-Westerners can't think for themselves isn't helping sentiments there either I'd imagine.

And these things had nothing to do with Russians sticking their noses everywhere and trying to implement their communist genocide over all the world? How many victims of communism is there? I mean, how many millions, sorry, tens of millions is there?

"as well as Ukraine say banning Russian language books"

Russian language, and Russian books are not banned in Ukraine. Some anti Ukraine books were removed from public libraries.

Banned, no. But thanks to the 2019 law they are suppressed in the public sphere to a significant degree.

What does “suppressed in the public sphere” mean in this context? The books are either banned or not. People are free in Ukraine to read and posses Russian books. You can sit in a coffee shop in Kyiv with a Russian book, while speaking Russian to a friend and be perfectly fine.

What does “suppressed in the public sphere” mean in this context?

Information about the law is very easy to find. If the topic interests you it may be worth your while to have a look.

The books are either banned or not.

Or there's a greyscale. Like you know, most things in life.

Again, do yourself a favor and look into the law and what it does. I could explain, but you need to at least do some of the work yourself here rather than just speculate into the air about the state of things in some far away country.

I'm not being snarky. It just seems weird to me that, having been given perfectly sufficient context to answer the question all by yourself ("2019 law") -- the only impulse you seem to have is to sit back and speculate.

You have made a lot of incorrect assumptions about me, so I will stop participating in this discussion. For anyone else reading this please know that if you visit Ukraine you can bring with you a book in Russian or in any other language. Furthermore feel free to walk into a local bookstore and purchase a book in Russian.

Chinese are extremely risk averse. They will eventually invade Taiwan but only when the odds are extremely in their favor. The Russian invasion of Ukraine showed them that they need to prepare better. I wouldn't be surprised if their economy collapses/stagnates before this day even comes.

> I wouldn't be surprised if their economy collapses/stagnates before this day even comes.

As predicted every year for the past 15 years.

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