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Comment by billiam | Hacker News Reader

Geologist here (by training). I know HN readers are instant experts on everything, except reading the entire article I guess. All the geoengineering suggestions are amusing, but there is nothing we can do about the (hypothetical) stress buildup on the Cascadia Fault. There are lots of ways to measure stress and determine which segments of a fault are locked, this direct observation of a single seep being one very anecdotal example. We have instrumented and observed the hell out of other faults for decades, and we have increased our ability to predict earthquakes by ~0%.

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> we have increased our ability to predict earthquakes by ~0%.

but what if we use chatGPT, or perhaps crypto?

Correct, if we [ blockchain ] then we will be able to solve [ thing ]

I think in part this is because of a mode of discourse based on questions by assertion: I know a small factoid, I got it from IFLS, I repeat it here, there is an implicit question.

"so if we dumped 30 megatonnes of concrete over the fault we'd alter the compression ratio of the subsoils and this would stop the coming mega-quake" because I read once that big buildings alter readings on somebody's seismograph, somewhere, once.

Mind you, geologists do it by reverse: I nice one I know from U Qld told me the economic upsides of the San Diego quake were net positive. I'm not sure all economists agree!

"Economic upsides" are directly related to the values assigned. If no value is assigned to death and trauma, it's quite possible that a net positive is recorded by knocking down a bunch of old building and highways and rebuilding them.

However, if we decide to jump-start economic development by knocking down infrastructure and rebuilding it, I'd suggest we make sure buildings and freeways are empty of human beings first.

The bigger issue is that these typical “post-crisis infrastructure spending results in massive economic gains!” stories ignore the opportunity cost of spending that money on repair rather than something else.

Committing this mistake can result in very unfortunate conclusions, such as breaking windows leads to economic growth.

"Our economy's in the toilet, we should start another war to stimulate spending!"

i think that sums up american history since the great depression.

Was waiting for someone to make a segmentation fault joke but it never came.

Segment Anything, Sam!

There is a "Meet the Parents" joke in there somewhere.

Didn't the Japan early warning system work pretty well? I'd say it was an improvement that wouldn't have been possible without increased abilities over the decades.

Those warn of an actively occurring earthquake. They don't predict an upcoming one.

Ah okay I see the distinction, that makes sense. We can give advance warning better than we used to but not predict the actual impetus.

Yeah it is a cool system, but it only works well depending on your location in regards to the sensors that detect the earthquake. That determines whether you will have seconds or up to a minute of time to react. If you are closer to the epicenter than the sensors, then you will probably feel the tremors before the warning gets to you.

So you're telling me there's a chance!

You must really work out.

There's nothing like seeing a topic that is distant from software that you have some expertise in to realise just how Mt. Stupid [1] this place can be

[1] https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2011-12-28

I'm over here wondering which comments could have warranted this accusation

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