And this is news? Hasn’t that been completely obvious since the fed was forced to hike interest rates?
Nothing in life is free, and the easy money we had, especially post COVID craziness, at some point has to have a cost.
Nothing in life is free, and the easy money we had, especially post COVID craziness, at some point has to have a cost.
(1) In a growth period that will last until the US ends, or
(2) In a recession, or
(3) Heading for a recession (equivalently, “in an economic expansion”, if you are more a “glass currently full” than a “glass will sometime in the future be empty” type).
There are literally no other options.
OTOH, I hope that the Fed thinks that a recession is imminent, because if it does and acts like it, then it is, ipso facto, less likely to actually occur, and more likely to be shallow and short if it nevertheless does, and moderate monetary stimulus without concurrent fiscal stimulus (and politically fiscal stimulus just isn’t probable with this Congress) might slow the decline of inflation, but isn’t going to turn restoke inflation.
> There are literally no other options.
When growth is increasing or steady you're heading away from a recession; it's only when growth is declining that you're heading for a recession.
(In fact, there isn’t even an actual function, just declared peaks and troughs; between peak and trough is “recession”, between trough and peak is “expansion”, and if you are in one – unless it goes on forever – you are heading for the other. The only nontrivial prediction regarding “heading for” is how soon, not are we.)
But also I don't like your definition of "heading for" at all. When I leave my house to go to work, I am not "heading for" my house, despite the fact that I will inevitably return.
Not quite, but there is certainly only 3 scenarios, just as shown by a graph. It can go up (growth), it can go down (recession), or it can be flat (stagnation).