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Comment by Spivak | Hacker News Reader

I think you have it backwards and that late 2034 ICE cars are going to sell like hotcakes and the market for keeping used cars alive will thrive like we’ve never seen.

I really want to believe that local governments are going to have this ban light a fire under their ass and and actuality make EVs usable for the “rest of us” who have street parking and no chargers at work but they won’t and so like everything else in this world this ban will disproportionately affect low income folks.

Also governments will happily exempt themselves and their from their own laws once they realize that you can’t “just” replace busses and mail delivery with EVs and have to actually plan for it.

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>I think you have it backwards and that late 2034 ICE cars are going to sell like hotcakes and the market for keeping used cars alive will thrive like we’ve never seen.

I suspect the ever-increasing cost of fossil fuels will prevent such a thriving market in ICE repair being long-lived...

But the question is, why are fossil fuels going up? It's because governments and large corporations are openly hostile to the industry and are trying to kill investment. If you work for exon, would you bother to look at oil exploration that pays off in 10 years? Nah, but that's the goal artificially increase the price, make fossil fuels suck more than ev. So the goal is not to make EVs better, it's to make fossil fuels worse. The real losers are the little people.

Exxon and the like are watching this. They will continue to drill, but they are already trying to predict how this will play out to ensure that they have enough wells to supply whatever demand there is in 10 years, while getting the best price from those that are left. They know the writing is on the wall for fuel customers - but there are other customers they have plus collectors.

Note that I did not say they will predict this correctly, only that they are trying to.

There is no reason for it to go up. Less cars -> less demand -> less cost.

I can't say I share your confidence in OPEC...

It's a resource that both producers and consumers know has a limited lifespan, and upon which a lot of consumers are totally dependent. There's every reason for OPEC nations to raise prices as high as they can to extract the most revenue possible before the source disappears. They know that as every year passes, the world's dependence on them diminishes.

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