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Comment by heipei | Hacker News Reader

It's going to be interesting to observe first hand how much earlier this will effectively take place, i.e. how much sooner folks will transition to only buying new EVs, because who wants to be the last person to buy a brand-new ICE just before 2035 except maybe some petrolheads.

It will also be interesting to see what this does to the used-car market in Europe, though I guess you can always sell used ICEs abroad minus their shipping cost.

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This isn't a ban on ICEs, just on new ones.

Existing ICEs will likely stay on the road until the 2050s, they will eventually get banned from city centers but many ICEs are already banned (my previous car was banned in 2020 in my city, and my current one will be in 2027, for example) and the used-car market doesn't seem to have suffered much if at all.

No, I get that it's only new cars, but what I meant what was that the attractiveness of an ICE will rapidly diminish way before the cutoff date of 2035. As other comments have said, infrastructure might heavily favour EVs (gas stations, parking lots, residential parking, city bans, tax incentives), making ICEs much less attractive even if you can still technically own and drive them. For new cars, the models that are going to be sold over the next 12 years have already been developed, many car manufacturers have developed their last iteration ICEs, so except facelifts you can essentially just buy 12-year-old models in 2034/2035.

Put another way: Would you want to be the last guy to buy an Intel Mac if Apple had already announced their switch to ARM with all the changes that go along with it? Yes, you can still run it, yes there are still others who run it, but do you want to be the last holdout that buys that Intel machine right before the next Apple keynote finalising the switch?

Secondhand ICE cars will be on the road for their normal lifespan after the ban comes in. There will be some changes to the market in terms of pricing, but they won't be going out of common sight for another 15-20 years, I think.

Some will be. However I think we will see a cliff. As ICE cars become less popular gas stations and the refineries supplying them will close. This will start happening when EVs have been 25% of the new market for 3 years, and accelerate when they have been 50% for 3 years. By the time EVs are 75% of the new market gas will start becoming expensive and so EVs will quickly jump to 98%, and people with ICEs will start to plan trips around where to get fuel. That last 1-2% will be some niches that cannot use an EV for some reason, and so they will lobby to reverse the law - but by then it will be too late for ICEs: a few years latter those with an ICE will special order fuel from the last refinery remaining in the world.

It will start slow: gas stations will be less profitable, but investors/banks will take time to catch on so they will be built in larger numbers than the numbers justify (if you are an investor take note: there is opportunity to make money in shorts if you get it right - I'm not an investor so I won't be playing this). Then they will all see reduced profitability. When pumps break or tanks fail inspection someone will decide the market doesn't justify the investment in fixing/replacing them an so they will close and they won't be replaced (the part already happens, but there is some other new station nearby to make it up)

The next part will accelerate as unprofitable gas stations go bankrupt. We will probably see some over correction in places as a corner than had 4 stations but can now only support 3 will see several go bankrupt at once, and then the one that just manages to hang on will be wildly profitable.

The last part will see us where gas is hard to get. If you have an ICE it is no longer a case of when the fuel gauge is low you stop for fuel, it is you know where the stations you use are and ensure you can get back to them. when on a road trip you plan around where gas stations are (much like EV cars have to now, but soon an EV will find chargers every 20 miles and so won't have to worry - some places already have EV chargers that dense)

Note that I said nothing about refineries. Many of them have better management and are watching this. At least some are already watching this and making plans to reduce size as it happens, between that and non-travel markets they will be okay for longer and probably can spin down their business. Watch out for the small ones: some of them are only running today because when they shutdown they have to cleanup decades of pollution - expect a bunch of "EPA superfund" projects around them.

I believe Norway is already close to the first mark above, and probably other countries. I expect to see it show up in data (that I have no clue how to access) soon.

The economies of gas stations will be interesting to watch for sure. Given that they already make only a few cents of profit per gallon sold, their main source of profit is probably all the additional things (pizza and beer at 2am or on Sundays where everything else is closed here in Germany). Couple that with the fact that EV owners will spend more time at a station due to charging times, the switch to EV might honestly drive up their profitability quite substantially. And once you can get rid of pumps you just eliminated maintenance of moving/pumping machinery, fire hazards, regular visits by fuel trucks, and probably a lot of other things I'm not even aware of.

I'm not saying I'm right on any of these, but I'm really curious to see how this plays out. There's gonna be some "wow, I didn't think that would happen" moments along the way.

It will happen but this story lacks that electrifying trucks is slower. Big gas station will remain and possibly gasoline become far expensive than diesel?

I think you have it backwards and that late 2034 ICE cars are going to sell like hotcakes and the market for keeping used cars alive will thrive like we’ve never seen.

I really want to believe that local governments are going to have this ban light a fire under their ass and and actuality make EVs usable for the “rest of us” who have street parking and no chargers at work but they won’t and so like everything else in this world this ban will disproportionately affect low income folks.

Also governments will happily exempt themselves and their from their own laws once they realize that you can’t “just” replace busses and mail delivery with EVs and have to actually plan for it.

>I think you have it backwards and that late 2034 ICE cars are going to sell like hotcakes and the market for keeping used cars alive will thrive like we’ve never seen.

I suspect the ever-increasing cost of fossil fuels will prevent such a thriving market in ICE repair being long-lived...

But the question is, why are fossil fuels going up? It's because governments and large corporations are openly hostile to the industry and are trying to kill investment. If you work for exon, would you bother to look at oil exploration that pays off in 10 years? Nah, but that's the goal artificially increase the price, make fossil fuels suck more than ev. So the goal is not to make EVs better, it's to make fossil fuels worse. The real losers are the little people.

Exxon and the like are watching this. They will continue to drill, but they are already trying to predict how this will play out to ensure that they have enough wells to supply whatever demand there is in 10 years, while getting the best price from those that are left. They know the writing is on the wall for fuel customers - but there are other customers they have plus collectors.

Note that I did not say they will predict this correctly, only that they are trying to.

There is no reason for it to go up. Less cars -> less demand -> less cost.

I can't say I share your confidence in OPEC...

It's a resource that both producers and consumers know has a limited lifespan, and upon which a lot of consumers are totally dependent. There's every reason for OPEC nations to raise prices as high as they can to extract the most revenue possible before the source disappears. They know that as every year passes, the world's dependence on them diminishes.

I’m guessing people will be stockpiling them. Used ICEs will probably retain lots of value for years after this mandate goes into effect. Especially when people figure out the electrical to their home doesn’t have enough to charge reliably.

For a short time. However soon after they will discover that an ICE doesn't take to just sitting around for years. Not used seals start leaking. Lead-acid batteries need to be stored correctly or they discharge and fail. And other problems - all for a car that you don't use, and fuel is hard to find.

There will be a few niches that still use ICEs (but my guess is they get the law changed and one factory in the world provides all the vehicles that niche needs - this won't be the average car, but something setup for their niche, so they won't be interested in your stored car)

Cuban's still use cars from the 1950s. An entire ecosystem springs up around it. I don't think it will be a big deal. Eventually they will phase out except for wealthy people and collectors (sort of like horses today) but I have to imagine they will be pretty common for the next 15-20 years after the ban. I expect a lot of people to buy them leading up to the ban as well.

> how much sooner folks will transition to only buying new EVs

Won't happen until we get cheap EVs. Most people can't afford even the basic models (which are glorified golf carts and can't even do highway speeds)

I believe its the same logic as with ICE - used electric car market needs to look similar to used ICE car market, pricewise. I can accept buying electric car say 6 years old with 90% battery capacity and usual wear and tear for half to 1/3rd of the price of new one.

But even though I can easily afford it, I will simply never pay those prices for new cars, ICE nor electric. They are ridiculous, never understood who buys them outright or via some not-so-smart payment regimes.

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