EU lawmakers approve effective 2035 ban on new fossil fuel cars

The UK has enacted a similar ban that should come into effect 5 years earlier, in 2030, so in 7 years and at the moment my best guess is that this is going to be a bloodbath (and second hand petrol cars are going to become even more valuable) if it is not postponed. It requires gigantic investments and adaptation that are not happening, or are happening very, very slowly.

Ban it in next 4 years?

Reversing it would require an active push for something that is unpopular

Look at the sheer investment in lithium, batteries and electronic suppliers. Manufacturers are going full tilt into lithium supply contracts, battery factory joint ventures, motor and electronic components - almost every week theres a new announcement.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's hundreds of billions at this point between Europe, North America and Japan. That's not even counting China or India.

This will make it an competive advantage for car makers to switch over early.

If there are no deadlines, this will never get done

I really want to believe that local governments are going to have this ban light a fire under their ass and and actuality make EVs usable for the “rest of us” who have street parking and no chargers at work but they won’t and so like everything else in this world this ban will disproportionately affect low income folks.

Also governments will happily exempt themselves and their from their own laws once they realize that you can’t “just” replace busses and mail delivery with EVs and have to actually plan for it.

Existing ICEs will likely stay on the road until the 2050s, they will eventually get banned from city centers but many ICEs are already banned (my previous car was banned in 2020 in my city, and my current one will be in 2027, for example) and the used-car market doesn't seem to have suffered much if at all.

Won't happen until we get cheap EVs. Most people can't afford even the basic models (which are glorified golf carts and can't even do highway speeds)

Electrification of their railway station could be a cost, but it's so short you might be able to use a long enough train that the locomotive never enters the sovereign area.

your article:

"(City of) Amsterdam Announces A Ban On Fossil Fuel Vehicles From 2030"

you:

"And the Netherlands as a whole is trying to do it by 2025."

Last time I checked Amsterdam was in Netherlands.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/the-lifecycle-emissions-of-elect...

Of course these studies are looking at averages. If you drive a 10 year old Honda Civic and only go 500 miles a year, you aren't going to be saving the environment by buying an electric Hummer.

Even better if some of them can be converted - but that might be too difficult

Since we talk about systems comprised of at least few thousands of pieces, and failure of most will degrade usability/safety of the car or render it unable to drive, I can't agree with some of your statements. Recycling of course is a valid point but those are not same cars.

Also its trivial for bureaucracies to tax older more polluting cars to hell... people are sensitive to costs. And older cars do pollute more.

Cars have two obvious problems from a long-term maintenance standpoint: the steel chasis, which is protected from rust by paint. That will absolutely and inevitably rust. The second is that people don't understand maintenance. They'll happilly sit next to a machine that's screaming audibly for lack of oil, and think nothing of it. That's not something that will get better in the future.

This is so far from the truth it must be satire? Unless by maintenance, you mean the complete replacement of engine, accessories, drivetrain, electrics, electronics, interior, frame/subframes/chassis/body, suspension, wheels, fasterners, etc. Ie every part.

Maybe the mirrors in the sun visors can be used indefinitely. Everything else will wear out.

I have no doubt the hobbyists will find a way to keep their old cars as they always have. The rest of us don't want to be wasting our time and money keeping a 30-year-old car in decent condition.

Cars adapted to E10 or E15 won't run on pure ethanol. You can probably run diesel cars on vegoil but I expect problems cause it's more viscous. Talking about Europe here, not LatAm or Brazil.

Petrol is 100 units of bad for CO2, diesel is (say) 95 units, batteries are perhaps 20, bicycles 5, good shoes and walkable neighbourhoods 1.

But petrol has cost ($ up front not TCO or non-CO2 pollution) of 20, diesel 22, batteries were 100 and are now 25, bicycles 1-2, and I'm not sure how to make even this level of wild guess for walkable neighbourhoods.

The reduction in cost of batteries is what's made this viable. Before this was viable, diesel was sill less bad.

https://nitter.net/BM_Visser/status/1624717450297348096#m

It should, obviously, but even today (with not so great energy mixes) electric cars do better than gas cars from an emissions point of view (even if looking at the whole life cycle).

Electric cars are energy mix agnostic and you try to frame that as a disadvantage but it actually is not, quite the opposite. They are one puzzle piece that enables change and without which change is not possible.

I don’t get arguments like yours.

Obviously we always have to do much, much more. We have to massively push individual cars out of densely populated areas and turn them into an option that is not fun at all to use there. We have to upgrade public transport. We have to better our energy mix. Buildings have to become more efficient on a massive scale. Energy intensive industrial processes have to transition to ways of doing things that can at least be plausibly made CO2 (equivalent) neutral like hydrogen. And and and. Doesn’t mean that all of this has to or even can happen at the same time.

Everyone keeps repeating this farce. No Trains are not prevalent enough. Those are prevalent only between major cities and do not offer a good service. (Most of trains in rush hours do not have enough capacity, are a health hazzard, heating or cooling does not work etc, on the otherside of the coin, outside of rush hours you have these trains run practically empty, total waste of Energy).

Asking people to exhange their 1 hour commute for a 2.5 hours (each direction) public transport is not a solution.

But the main problem is that not everyone need to move between major cities where these trains are prevalent. I drive one hour to get to work. there are no Train lines there. While that distance is doable with an EV, it makes you nervous, there is effectivly zero infrastructure build for EVs outside of Major cities and I know fully well that the infrastructure will not be ready by 2035.

EU has put the cart before the horse. They should have first mandated the building of the infrastructure and I am sure more people will adopt the EVs. Meanwhile more incetivising of Hybrid Cars should be in place.

We've got the Blue Banana region[0] which is well connected, and western Europe more broadly, but if there's a way to get from Berlin to Athens only by train I don't know how to find it.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Banana ironically straightened by Brexit