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Comment by SllX | Hacker News Reader

That’s a good argument immediately following World War II prior to the decades of global economic integration and ICBM development. Less so today.

Now it is very much our business what is going on in Asia, particularly since the risk is the subjugation of our allies by a totalitarian regime. It is better to have a strong and independent Taiwan, a strong Japan and strong Korea and even strong Philippines and Vietnam to counteract a strengthening PLA Navy, but we also want them to not be hostile to the USA, and we also want it to cost the PRC to even think nukes are the easy way to check the ambitions of their immediate neighbors. That does mean keeping our military promises to Taiwan, Korea and Japan. Simply put, there is no World from where we stand today where unchecked-by-us PRC ambition is an acceptable path forward.

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How many American lives would you say it's worth?

Hopefully none, but if we come to blows we won’t have a choice in how many to accomplish our objectives, now will we? That’s the risk of war; so the PRC needs to back down over Taiwan.

They aren't my objectives and they aren't yours either because we don't get a say in deciding them. China will never abandon the One China policy, so you should come up with a real number of how many American sons, daughters, fathers, and mothers you think it's reasonable to sacrifice for this doomed policy of hubris.

No, I don’t think I will. The goal is to avoid war, if possible, and defend Taiwan if we have to, and to make the PRC regret having chosen to invade Taiwan because they couldn’t relinquish their One China position. Deferring to the CCP’s chosen policy is not an option.

War costs a lot of lives, but a hot war between adversaries means making the adversarial position suffer more for having taken up arms in the first place. A defensive war over Taiwan and keeping our promise doesn’t need a number on the table in advance to make it worth doing. It’s crass to even ask. How many American lives will it take to sink every boat belonging to or commandeered by the PLA in the Taiwan Strait, shoot down every jet that flies above and mow down every pair of PLA boots that lands on Taiwan’s beaches, and destroy every military shipyard on their coastline? Let’s assume this isn’t purely an American fight, you know, for the sake of argument.

If you can figure that one out, you’ll have something close to your answer.

50,000 sons 45,000 daughters about the same again in fathers and mothers

How did you arrive at that figure?

Well I figured we lost almost half a million in WW2, at a population 1/3 of what we have now.

How many people do you think the CCP will sacrifice to take Taiwan?

Learn the historical significance of the One China policy. Then the answer will be obvious.

At this point, the One China policy is a political fig leaf that both sides of the strait cling to to pragmatically stave off renewed warfare, which is prudent. On the other hand, a lot of that de jure formality is constantly being played around with.

For instance, just recently the likely next DPP/pan-green presidential candidate is declaring that Taiwan is already de facto sovereign and independent, and so there is no need to formally declare independence:

https://twitter.com/brianhioe/status/1615638156367507456

Odds are, this entire discourse in this HN thread is just a lot of fulminating hot air by people who don't even live in Asia, grognarding hypothetical wargames and war toys, while the actual people in China and Taiwan will peaceably and gradually figure it out over time.

Absent outside influences, I agree the issue would be resolved peacefully over time. The problem is the Western elite want to use the issue to justify aggression and containment of China since China poses a mortal threat to the US-centric global financial system which is in a deepening state of crisis.

Then I point you to the historical significance of poking a sleeping giant. Ask Japan how they feel about it.

Paper tiger.

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