Now it is very much our business what is going on in Asia, particularly since the risk is the subjugation of our allies by a totalitarian regime. It is better to have a strong and independent Taiwan, a strong Japan and strong Korea and even strong Philippines and Vietnam to counteract a strengthening PLA Navy, but we also want them to not be hostile to the USA, and we also want it to cost the PRC to even think nukes are the easy way to check the ambitions of their immediate neighbors. That does mean keeping our military promises to Taiwan, Korea and Japan. Simply put, there is no World from where we stand today where unchecked-by-us PRC ambition is an acceptable path forward.
War costs a lot of lives, but a hot war between adversaries means making the adversarial position suffer more for having taken up arms in the first place. A defensive war over Taiwan and keeping our promise doesn’t need a number on the table in advance to make it worth doing. It’s crass to even ask. How many American lives will it take to sink every boat belonging to or commandeered by the PLA in the Taiwan Strait, shoot down every jet that flies above and mow down every pair of PLA boots that lands on Taiwan’s beaches, and destroy every military shipyard on their coastline? Let’s assume this isn’t purely an American fight, you know, for the sake of argument.
If you can figure that one out, you’ll have something close to your answer.
How many people do you think the CCP will sacrifice to take Taiwan?
For instance, just recently the likely next DPP/pan-green presidential candidate is declaring that Taiwan is already de facto sovereign and independent, and so there is no need to formally declare independence:
https://twitter.com/brianhioe/status/1615638156367507456
Odds are, this entire discourse in this HN thread is just a lot of fulminating hot air by people who don't even live in Asia, grognarding hypothetical wargames and war toys, while the actual people in China and Taiwan will peaceably and gradually figure it out over time.
I'd prefer no Americans die in the course of this, similar to Ukraine. But certainly the number of Americans worth dying to heroically save a country of nearly 25 Million from genocide and slavery isn't 0.