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Comment by karmasimida | Hacker News Reader

Well, I think Chinese providers will not entrust in US technology moving forward. Who knows when next ban would come.

I think this ban will result in worse off situtation for both countries. China is a huge market for Nvidia after all. While China will become ever more isolated in the landscape of AI/Graphics community, which is a big bad news for it apparently.

China will create its own GPUs eventually, but probably with an incompatible standard that suits only Chinese market. Like Japan in 80s/90s.

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Realistically speaking the datacenters / enterprise would have to buy the next best thing in the short term, though you are right in that China (being a planned economy) will take this as economic warfare, designate GPUs as strategic resource and invest in creating domestic production capacity.

If high speed trains are anything to go by (China sends regards to the California High Speed Rail Project) then the US will be left behind by the end of the decade.

That is contingent on China able to access other global markets for its own GPUs/chips

Which I don't think is a given, it will become more like cold wars, where market access will become limited to allies only.

> That is contingent on China able to access other global markets for its own GPUs/chips

https://howmuch.net/articles/trade-timelapse-usa-china

Most of the world trades more with China than with the USA, if it is contingent on that then not only does China have access they are most often the biggest trading partner.

> it will become more like cold wars, where market access will become limited to allies only.

Yes, it seems like the USA has admitted marketplace defeat and will proceed to isolate themselves as much as possible.

China recently announced their GPU: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/first-wholly-domestic-chin... - from the specs, it's not bad.

12nm, about 5 years behind; it would be a very bad deal against current AMD Radeon RX offerings though the Chinese Economic Planning body would very likely throw a lot of support to secure domestic IP and production capacity.

FWIW, Pascal GPUs are completely usable for image classification, model training and even inferencing the full Stable Diffusion model. China doesn't need a dense node, just big server-grade GPU dies and the same software we have.

This was recently revealed at Hot Chips: https://www.nextplatform.com/2022/08/25/china-launches-the-i...

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