I think it is fair to say that the powers that be just don't care about inflation.
I think it is fair to say that the powers that be just don't care about inflation.
Actually, I don't. I would rather see the abolishment of quantitative easing and central bank controlled short term interest rates by eliminating the zero lower bound by introducing a demurrage fee on excessive amounts of liquidity.
Nobody wants that. The latter is indispensable to allow interest rates to fall below zero to allow the economy to unwind when it doesn't want to grow.
Secretly every single human on this planet prefers inflation over negative interest rates due to loss aversion. Everyone thinks they can save money by making negative interest rates illegal. The losses don't disappear, they hust leak into thr economy in the form of inflation. All hail the money illusion, in the money illusion we trust.
Imagine if you were painfully aware of inflation every single year, that your bank account would literally tell you, you lost X dollars from inflation but your salary is automatically adjusted upwards to match inflation. That is what a negative interest rate does and nobody wants that, they want to stick their head into the sand, they want to use inflation as a political tool for their own cause.
Instead, you get this nebulous, creeping feeling that something is going wrong but you don't know by how much. So you just assume the worst and think the government is conspiring against you.
I think you are right. Yet pulling off the band aid would be much better. And it would be better for inequality, as asset prices would collapse if you raised interest rates (check the US stock market, real estate, and bitcoin), which is where most wealth is stored.
If our ecosphere had a vote, it'd probably oppose this paradigm of "we still desperately need a growing economy today".
What people do need is the basics: food, shelter, health care ... what they don't need is a turbo charged economy that is still based 80 % on fossil energy and on people being addicted to consumption of throw-away products.
1. They say that the bulk of inflation is imported (energy, food, etc) so raising interest rates makes no difference to inflation (and in fact can push cost of living further)
2. Demand is already crashing.
3. Economy is already contracting.
4. Effects of raisin rates can take 2 years to trickle down
So their estimate is that raising rates too aggressively would make things worse, not better.
It’s not by chance that countries like Italy and Germany, that are way more reliant on gas than the UK, have a much lower inflation and still an almost normal core inflation. They have a central bank that, Lagarde aside, is not a clownish shitshow.
It should be said that much of current inflation is due to the disruption of the British supply chains that was caused by Brexit. Short of re-joining the EU, that I’d vote against because we must stop putting up with the antics of the Englishman, the only way out I see, as a rando with some interest in economics, is a 1980-style recession.
I work with a UK retailer and, from what I see, supply chain disruption is 99% China. And, the Northern Ireland issue is currently a convenient excuse to refuse to supply since it was always economically unviable for large items anyways.
Not really: "Euro area annual inflation was 8.1 % in May 2022, up from 7.4 % in April 2022" [1], and of course it is, I believe, also 8.5-9% in the US.
[1] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...
Eurozone core inflation: 3.8 UK core inflation: 5.9
Where would the price level increase caused by a labour shortage end up: core or non-core inflation? Besides the UK started having a significant inflation differential with the eurozone since mid 2016.
https://www.newstatesman.com/business/2022/06/uk-inflation-b...
You are welcome
Also note that the UK and the Eurozone obviously have different currencies. At the moment we see a small difference in inflation rates, and?
- of course they have different currencies, that’s exactly what we are talking about, and also different governments. One busy sabotaging its supply chains and the other doing whatever
- the UK has been having much more severe shortages than the rest of Europe (empty petrol stations everywhere bar NI?), that are having an impact on prices
> You are not explaining your rather bold claim that "most of UK inflation" is due to Brexit...
You are right, I should have said “much of the core inflation differential with the EU is due to Brexit”
You are welcome