I'm curious as to how you dismiss the first pattern, specifically, Russia's treatment of indigenous Crimean Tatars as well as the laughable 2014 "referendum"
The formula is simple, you make a narrative that devides to right and wrong. Then you spam people of the hell that will break loose if they do not vote for what you want. People vote it and then you say "hey! The people wanted it, not me!" If they don't vote it you just hold a second referendum.
I am not saying this is what happened there exactly, but referendums have become a joke in the 21st century.