The trouble is that this is a Hard Problem because a huge fraction of the world's carbon is extracted in or by countries whose geopolitical standing would be crushed by this. But unless we do this, the same amount of carbon will ultimately be extracted and subsequently burned by somebody.
(Also when push comes to shove nobody actually gives a shit about any of this, and any politician who deliberately does anything to raise fuel prices will find their head on a pike)
What? No.
We don't care about the extraction.
If oil must be burned, don't care whether it's Oil from wells or Oil from biowaste.
If it's oil for burning an engine, and we need that engine to operate for some economic reason - then we actually want people to consume the cheapest version.
We don't want to make people jump through hurdles to 'run an engine that we need to run' for no reason.
We may want to make sure that running that engine is economically essential, in which case keeping prices high, or, by some regulation.
The act of 'extraction' is not a problem, there's not much negative from that.
Other than geostrategic issues (i.e. Russia) we don't care where it comes from.
What we want to do is tax the fuel itself - not emissions.
The emissions are a direct function of the fuel.
We know X litres of gas will create Y tonnes for Co2 and that's it. So tax the fuel instead of getting people to figure out emissions.
Oil that is used for other reasons, we don't really care about.
We could put a fuel tax, and a natural gas tax up right now - we already have mechanisms in place for that.
Yes, we really do. There is vastly more carbon in the atmosphere than a hundred years ago. Where did it come from?
You can burn oil made from biowaste all day and all night and it won't raise CO2 levels one little bit. Why? Because all that carbon came from the atmosphere to begin with! All the carbon in living things comes from plants, who get it from atmospheric CO2. It's a closed cycle.
The problem is solely, 100%, taking carbon that has been safely in the ground for millions of years, and through a convoluted process putting it in the atmosphere and never retrieving it. And then being shocked that atmospheric CO2 levels are returning to what they were millions of years ago, in the period aptly known as the "Carboniferous".
To sustain our current per-capita energy consumption beyond our accumulated biomass stores, the limiting factor is land area. There's probably not enough space on Earth to devote to growing biomass purely for energy. Solar panels reach 10 times the generated power per unit area, easily, and we can do even better by exploiting energy accumulation that happens without technology, like wind.
"You can burn oil made from biowaste all day and all night and it won't raise CO2 levels one little bit. Why? Because all that carbon came from the atmosphere to begin with! All the carbon in living things comes from plants, who get it from atmospheric CO2. It's a closed cycle."
Oil comes from plants and animals, crushed under the weight of the earth, it's also a 'natural cycle' - but that doesn't matter at all.
"The problem is solely, 100%, taking carbon that has been safely in the ground for millions of years, a"
No, it has nothing to do with that at all.
It doesn't matter where or how the carbon gets into the air.
Anything that is going to be used as a fuel, we tax, relative to the amount of CO2 it emits, and that's that.
If as it turns out it's incredibly more efficient to burn 'biofuel' than it is to extract Oil - fine. But it's probably not the case.
So. If you take carbon out of the ground, and expect to see it floating in the air, you should be taxed. That's the idea.
But does this make sense? Just how much of the carbon in oil really is destined for the air? How much of the wood? How much of the stone? Or is there some other chain I'm missing? How much carbon would be sequestered in plants that produce biofuel? How much of a net negative is ethonol production anyway? What about other fuels? This subject seems complex to me.
You seem to think all this is wrong, and it could be! I really would be interested to hear where the logic breaks down.
It's not efficient as an energy cycle.
Not even considering the fact that wood burns in a very 'dirty' way and would require a lot of energy to 'clean' the emissions.
You have to be careful when you speak of "efficiency". You have to specify, with respect to what expended resource, and what desired goal? If we say the expended resource is "land area" and the desired goal is "powering all of civilization", then indeed the the "efficiency" of growing trees and burning them is not so great, compared to say solar panels. But if the expended resource is "environmental damage" and the desired goal is "heating a cabin in the woods", burning tree wood is extremely efficient.
So it seems the real point is that it's "dirty"? We'd have to clean... what? Particle emissions? Most areas I see woodburning done have high quality air, low particle counts. Because their density is so low.
This keeps happening. The core rebuttable to dTal's argument is being left unstated. You keep saying it's wrong, you keep not saying why.
There are not that many dead trees, they don't release all of their Co2, you don't get that much energy, and it's a 'dirty emission'. Burning Hydrogen gives you CO2 and H20 - nice and clean. Burning wood gives you a lot of bad things.
But I think that it's accurate to say that when you burn wood, you're emitting CO2 that would have been released as the wood decayed anyway. In that sense, you're not really contributing to climate change. This doesn't count any energy used in harvesting and transporting the wood, which of course could contribute to emissions.
To use another example, if you grow sugar cane, and using green energy sources, turn it into ethanol, and burn that in a car instead of gasoline, that's basically carbon neutral. If you hadn't grown the sugar cane, something else would have grown there, and decayed, and released the carbon into the atmosphere.
It would be valid to argue that if we had let the field turn into a forest, it would trap more carbon than the sugar cane would. And we should let forests regrow, where we can! But it's a one-time thing -- once the forest is grown, it would stay stable in the amount of carbon captured there. To continue to trap carbon, we'd need to keep harvesting the trees and doing something with them to permanently take them out of the carbon cycle, like turning them into buildings or somehow turning the carbon in them into something that doesn't decompose and burying it.
For carbon-reduction purposes maybe not, but fracking does create its own problems.
It seems to me we could take a page out of Europe's VAT book which is ultimately paid by the consumer but tracks the "value added" throughout the supply chain from raw resources to finished goods.
Main problem with at-production is that not all consumptions are equal, and it puts the cost equally on all.
Once it's out of the ground, it's a matter of time before it ends up in the atmosphere, unless unusually careful sequestration measures are taken. Better to subsidize those, and tax generation, rather than try to micromanage the bit in between.
Also, if you try and individually tax the hundreds of thousands of different uses for carbon, according to how much carbon each thing uses, inevitably you'll get it wrong, and this will create inefficiencies and perverse incentives to do arbitrage between the various poorly calibrated taxes. What you want is for the market to figure it all out!
We know how bad one unit of "cigarette" is for our health, but we don't know how bad one unit of xxx is for the environment. An apple can have a co2 footprint of multiple tons of co2 or zero tons of co2. We can't know for sure.
Whereas if you tax at extraction this is automatically take into account at every step of the supply chain. The market does all the hard work for you.
For me the pragmatic approach is to assume that the third world isn't going to become carbon neutral anytime soon so we are better off preparing for the inevitability of climate change rather than trying to prevent it. Sadly things like large scale geoengineering projects, genetic modification of local flora to support the new climate and other pragmatic measures aren't palatable to the crowd most worried about climate change.
And international travel becoming more expensive is probably true. To the degree that international travel is emissions-heavy, it needs to slow down and stop. But if you change the markets, other things may change. We may shift more to slower style travel like energy-efficient airship cruises powered by hydrogen, or invest heavily into ethanol to the point where airline travel becomes less expensive again. And maybe I'm wrong, and it will never again be as cheap as it was in the era of fossil fuels. But we have to get to carbon neutral -- if that comes earlier because we invent efficient carbon capture, great, but I really think that ending our use of fossil fuels is going to be vital.
And maybe I'm weird, but I am perfectly happy with my own carbon use being taxed to solve this problem. I really don't want it to be a class warfare issue -- we absolutely should do what we can to make it easier on people who will be hit the hardest, those with low income who have jobs that require a lot of car travel, for example.
The standard vision in policy discussions assumes infinite substitutability. As soon as the cost of clean energy is lower than the cost of carbon-emitting energy, everyone substitutes completely to the latter and the oil and coal stay in the ground. This is the key question. What the graphs make clear is that the majority of carbon must stay in the ground (or go back there) if we want to avoid a large temperature rise. (Again, I do not quibble with the climate side of the models here. Whether the large temperature rise actually hurts GDP is a separate issue, which I'll return to in the next post.) But as long as the elasticity of substitution is finite, as here, then the carbon comes out of the ground. As you use less and less, the remaining uses become more and more valuable, so it's worth it, privately and to society, to keep using it although at lower scale.
This follows from a model that implies that even extremely high carbon taxes will only post-pone 4 degrees temperature rise by 50 years or so.
So I learn from this that a key focus for R&D is not so much on lowering the cost of alternatives, but increasing their substitutability for fossil fuels. Just because the cost of solar cells is plummeting does us little good. We need to increase their substitutability. This consideration once again points to nuclear and carbon capture and storage as really important technologies. We're really talking about how to replace coal-fired base-load electric plants in parts of the world that badly need electricity. Nuclear and capture and storage, though they might not be the least expensive, seem to offer much better substitutability options. That both are forbidden topics in climate debates is sad. Substitution also involves other large carbon emitters. It's hard to make steel and concrete without emitting lots of carbon.
This thought emphasizes a point that Bjorn Lomborg hammered away on in many different ways during a previous presentation: Simply making carbon more expensive will not work.
https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2021/07/rossi-hansberg-on...
This sounds awesome. How is this an argument against?
I don't understand the substitutability argument. Yes, we need to spend a lot of effort making non-carbon mechanisms to substitute for carbon mechanism. To do that, we need an incentive for this research. The carbon tax is a good incentive.
Carbon tax is also politically neutral -- it doesn't care whether you substitute with nuclear, carbon capture or something prettier.
Got any more arguments for a carbon tax disguised as arguments against it?
It isn't. I'm sure you could think of some voodoo remedy that increases temperatures faster than if you did nothing.
Including 28 Nobel laureates, former Federal Reserve chairpeople, and a few thousand other economists.
But intuitively, I do agree that simply making carbon more expensive won't work. You have to take the money and inject it back into the economy in a way that alleviates the regressive nature of a plain carbon tax while making the revenue available to boost the low-carbon economy. Carbon dividends, if you trust most economists, is the most efficient way to do that.
Most fossil-fuel burning is going on in power plants. By diverting power generation to renewables, you remove the demand; fossil fuel prices fall, prospecting falls, extraction falls.
Yes, I know, there's flight, shipping and personal transportation. But power generation is most of it. And I'd just like to see less flight, shipping and personal transportation.
It's also fun to compare the effectiveness of pricing carbon with other solutions using En-ROADS [1], built by MIT and Climate Interactive.
However, this is a national policy thing that requires our direct participation in politics. Our elected officials need to be hearing about this from an increasing number of citizens and, frankly, be put into a position of worrying about their re-election chances if they don't support it (and other robust climate policy).
[0] https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/yc... (look for "Require fossil fuel companies to pay a carbon tax")
[1] https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?v=22.4...
Why not just tax the fuel?
Measuring carbon emissions has to be a pain.
But we know pretty much what emits carbon, it's the gas or oil.
Pick a spot in the carbon value chain that's closer to the source and tax that.
It's a bit crude, but maybe more accurate than measuring emissions.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/t...
This claim in the article is directly contradicted by the Canadian government.
>Indeed, most households will see a net loss resulting from federal carbon pricing under the HEHE plan in 2030-31 (Table 3-2). That is, their overall costs—which now include the federal levy and GST paid (fiscal impact) and lower employment and investment income (economic impact)—exceed the rebate and the induced reduction in personal income taxes arising from the loss in income.
https://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/blog/news/RP-2122-032-S--distri...
>Taking into account only the fiscal, or “use-side” impacts, we project most households will see a net gain, receiving more in rebates from federal carbon pricing under the Government’s HEHE than the total amount they pay in federal fuel charges (directly and indirectly).
The quote you're pulling specifically factors in a projected "economic impact" of lost investment, which it compares to the "fiscal impact". The economic impact is precisely the point. The fiscal impact is how to make the medicine go down.
It would be great news if we can sacrifice some economic growth in the short term in order to create a potentially popular wealth transfer program that also efficiently disincentivizes burning fossil fuels. If this approach can be scaled up, then the economic losses incurred will be outweighed several times over by averting climate change catastrophe. That's the whole idea.
>It would be great news if we can sacrifice some economic growth
The bank of Canada is projecting "significant macroeconomic consequences, touching every region and sector" and "asset values across the financial system could be subject to sharp declines in valuation, which might generate credit and market losses, and it might increase the stress on the financial system".
https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/bank-canada-plans-new-t...
>"Climate change and the transition to a low-carbon net zero economy will have significant macroeconomic consequences, touching every region and sector of the Canadian and global economies," the bank said in a statement tied to the United Nations' COP26 global climate summit in Scotland.
And:
>Separately, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle said the steps needed to mitigate the effects of global warming would lead to massive restructuring and the risk that some parts of the economy would shrink.
>"Asset values across the financial system could be subject to sharp declines in valuation, which might generate credit and market losses, and it might increase the stress on the financial system," he told a climate panel in Toronto.
Nothing in that quote mentioned anything about the cost of doing nothing.
>"_Climate change and_ the transition to a low-carbon net zero economy will have significant macroeconomic consequences ... "
>Separately, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle said the steps _needed to mitigate the effects of global warming_ ...
If 100% of the money went back, you'd get back equal (or more) what you paid, if you are responsible for the average (or less of the same) of CO2 production per citizen.
Since there are many more poor people than there are rich people which are responsible for disproportional much more emission, the people below the average are the majority
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/04/carbon-f...
Only paying back 90% generates a small shift into the other direction though
The way that there are net losses to households is by calculating the "economic costs" of lost investment and jobs. This is exactly what carbon taxes are meant to do: internalize the externalized costs of burning fossil fuels.
Where's that money going? Administering the program? Being taken by the government as tax revenue?
The net loss here is calculated by subtracting the "economic cost" of lost investment and jobs due to carbon pricing. This is kind of the point; you would probably expect industries that are more fossil fuel intensive to be taking a hit if carbon taxes are doing what we want them to do.
Now of course Canada's carbon tax is tiny, but there's probably some behavioural economics rationale behind the idea that even a tiny cost can have outsized impact on behaviour.
- a drastic societal change or, - stumble upon an ancient alien artefact progressing our technology to the point where coal becomes useless
(digging a giant hole in my backyard with the hope of finding a Stargate whilst writing this comment)
Edit: morbid humour and sarcasm aside, the sibling comments provide some context on why taxing carbon might actually work
E.g. based on last year's co2 vs rolling 5 years average, calculated by weather satellites rather than self-reported.
I've got no idea how gdp would be taken into account though. Enclaves and disputed borders are also less clear.
It is also better at reducing emissions, because then less CO2-intensive options become cheaper than the alternative.
If the majority of economists really do say that then I guess the only solution is to not tax carbon, or, at the very least, to not do what a "majority of dismal scientists" suggest. Over here in Europe we're still feeling the political and societal effects of the austerity measures introduced after 2008-2010, measures which were strongly supported by the majority of economists back then.