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That chart is as of June 2, 2021. California didn't lift its COVID restrictions until June 15, 2021. The numbers started increasing soon after. Here is the current version of the same chart:

https://tracktherecovery.org/?zy41m

> In California, as of January 16 2022, the number of small businesses open increased by 1.1% compared to January 2020.

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It looks like you’re looking at a different chart, which is weird because they look like they’re from the same source. The tweeted pic of the chart shows -40% but the chart you linked never shows a value that low for the date mentioned.

They changed their methodology in March (the tweeted screenshot was taken before then). If you hover over the little triangle next to the title, it says: "We improved the data quality of the Small Business Revenue & Openings series using panel data: our previously posted data relied on a repeated cross-section." And there's a link to this document:

https://github.com/OpportunityInsights/EconomicTracker/blob/...

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