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Comment by blip54321 | Hacker News Reader

I would give one more potential explanation: In-fighting and a lack of unity.

If I were in charge of the air force, and Putin ordered large-scale air superiority attacks against Ukrainians, I wouldn't want to do that. Putin might not have the power to order his air force to launch strikes of aggression.

Dictatorships give the impression of being all-powerful, but dictators need to keep constituents appeased, but that's kind of an illusion. Key constituencies -- quite often the generals -- need to remain appeased.

I expect if this were the case, Russia wouldn't advertise this externally. There is every incentive to maintain a united external front.

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When the Soviet Union was breaking apart the air force general stationed in Tartu, Estonia refused the order to blockade the television and parliament buildings. That decision by Dzhokhar Dudayev probably saved many lives.

He then went on to fight for the independence of the Chechen Republic. On that note, I wonder if Russia doing poorly in Ukraine might not ignite the fight in Chechnya again.

But they are advertising that they are unable to control Ukrainian Air Space after 8 days of war

This is a war they have been planning for months if not years

I doubt the majority of Russian military planned this attack. It seems more like Putin and his inner circle made all the decisions and failed to listen (or were not even told out of fear) what could/should be done. Hitler had the same fatal idea that he was a military genius right until the end and his generals were often sacked if they disagreed.

Putin's been planning it... I think everyone else couldn't give a flying Bayraktar about it.

I had wondered this also. Although my explanation was that the air force may have 'accidentally' had a lot of aircraft undergoing 'maintenance' .

They're also likely busy finding the guys who sold all the fuel.

While preparing for the invasion, Russians were selling their fuel to locals at the borders in Russia and Belarus. Way to go!

> While preparing for the invasion, Russians were selling their fuel to locals at the borders in Russia and Belarus

To be fair, the troops apparently didn't know they were preparing for an invasion.

Of course, selling fuel and supplies when deployed for a training mission is still a sign of an appalling failure of discipline in a military force.

> selling fuel and supplies ... a sign of an appalling failure of discipline in a military force.

The thing is, selling arms under the table (embezzling arms) is a sign of corruption from the highest levels. The grunts aren't stupid - they're looking out for their own interest, because they aren't paid well nor treated well i imagine.

My dad told me that when he was in the Soviet army that this was fairly common. All the equipment had bits and pieces (especially fuel) that mysteriously went missing and appeared among the local populace.

Plausible. We know a lot of front line conscripts are self sabotaging or slow walking their orders. and I think the air command showed some independence in 91 and was above the fray.

what incentives even exist in the Russian army? this is such a weird situation to extrapolate from

I find your scenario childlish and not realistic.

No air force commander refuses such an order and makes his infantry die because he disagrees with the politics. Even if he did, he would likely be relieved of command the moment after and face court martial. And that's ignoring it is Russia we're talking about.

I think you're confusing how systems of government work. For a good description of dynamics in dictatorships, I'd recommend Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a political scientist at NYU.

To oversimplify, in a dictatorship, the dictator serves at the pleasure of the branches of the army, secret service, and police. If a majority believe he's unfit, he's out. Commanders have a lot of autonomy to refuse orders. That kind of infighting is common in China too. It's nearly impossible in a democracy.

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