> We tend to judge the likelihood and significance of things based on how easily they come to mind

Consequently:

> We overestimate the likelihood of unlikely events. And we underestimate the likelihood of likely events

How to stop doing that:

> #1. Always consider base rates when making judgments about probability.

> #2. Focus on trends and patterns.

> #3. Take the time to think before making a judgment.

> #4. Keep track of information you might need to use in a judgment far off in the future.

> #5. Go back and revisit old information.