The Availability Bias: How to Overcome a Common Cognitive Distortion | Hacker News Reader

The Availability Bias: How to Overcome a Common Cognitive Distortion

fs.blog

53 pointsfeross12 comments

> We overestimate the likelihood of unlikely events. And we underestimate the likelihood of likely events.

Perhaps we act this way (worried about plane crashes), but that certainly isn't true. Humans have shown time and again to systematically discount unlikely events.

Humans are capable of believing in whatever they want. People will emphacize likelihood of a plane crash if they are dreading going somewhere and discount it if there is a vacation in paradise on the other end.

> Humans are capable of believing in whatever they want.

Combine that with an ultra-flexible/fundamentally ambiguous language, and it goes a long ways towards explaining Planet Earth, early 21st century!

> “Combine that with an ultra-flexible/fundamentally ambiguous language...”

Combine those with a what Kahneman calls System I brain and System II brain, and you’re quickly multi-d

Yes...I reckon there is a fairly small set of fundamental ideas that account for the way things are here. And then I wonder: if people had coordinated/moderated knowledge of this, what could humanity accomplish.

> Tversky and Kahneman asked subjects whether a random English word is more likely to begin with “K” or have “K” as the third letter. Seeing as it’s typically easier to recall words beginning with a particular letter, people tended to assume the former was more common. The opposite is true.

Not sure what qualifies as a "random English word," but this claim is false for the common wordlist in /usr/share/dict/words and is certainly counterintuitive given that K likes to start syllables or come after C.

it should also be noted that the rise in online propaganda and memes perfectly exploit the availability bias by way of bots sharing, liking and reposting various anti democratic propaganda, which solidifies various echo chamber.

tl;dr anyone?

> We tend to judge the likelihood and significance of things based on how easily they come to mind

Consequently:

> We overestimate the likelihood of unlikely events. And we underestimate the likelihood of likely events

How to stop doing that:

> #1. Always consider base rates when making judgments about probability.

> #2. Focus on trends and patterns.

> #3. Take the time to think before making a judgment.

> #4. Keep track of information you might need to use in a judgment far off in the future.

> #5. Go back and revisit old information.

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