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Comment by _xnmw | Hacker News Reader

Canadian here on the ground in Ukraine, on the Eastern side (Kharkiv). The situation is pretty serious as everyone’s talking about war, and I personally am stocking up on non-perishable food items. The prevailing opinion seems to be that Russia is just flexing muscles, but I personally believe a full scale invasion is in the works. The idea that Putin is trying to extract concessions doesn’t make sense to me, because there aren’t many concessions to extract, especially from that young idealistic Zelensky.

But what do I know, read Henry Kissinger: https://www.henryakissinger.com/articles/how-the-ukraine-cri...

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Hey, American here, I live in Kyiv.

Things are as tense here as I've ever experienced since I moved here in 2018. Most Ukrainians I know don't think a full-scale invasion is likely, but I think that's just because contemplating the prospect of an escalation of the war with Russia is too unpleasant. I know that the Ukrainian armed forces are taking it seriously, although as far as I know they haven't yet mobilized any reserves.

That said, a lot has changed since 2014. Back then, Ukraine's military was hollowed out by years of neglect and corruption. Ukraine's armed forces have undergone a significant transformation since then, and while I don't think they could hold off the combined forces of Russia's armor, air, and naval assets, they don't have to: they just have to make Russia pay dearly enough for every meter they take that it's not worth it.

To that end, we (the US but also Canada and Great Britain) have done a lot in terms of training and support, and IIRC there are units of Ukrainian Special Forces which have certified as NATO SOF. If I were a Russian tank commander advancing into Ukrainian territory, I'd be very worried about the Javelin anti-tank missile systems Ukraine bought from the US. Ukraine is also operating a pretty advanced Turkish armed UAV platform which could ruin the day of would-be invaders.

I'm not yet at the point where I'm considering leaving Ukraine, but it is a pretty stressful time. However you have to understand that Ukraine has been at war with Russia since 2014; Ukrainian soldiers have continued to fight and die on the contact line in Eastern Ukraine ever since. So to some extent the population here are used to the looming threat of violence from Russia since it never went away. Nonetheless, this feels like an escalation and that worries me.

"on the ground" as in military service or are you living/visiting?

Living and working on a tech startup. Fiance is Ukrainian.

Hello from Kharkiv, article is largely outdated.

Russia invasion consolidated Ukrainians. Only NATO could bring peace to my country. Crimea with Russia returns to its native state, land without much water. That was a reason Crimea was handled to Ukraine, on its balance, it was not "present".

Putin is trying to distract from internal problems — rising prices, peaceful meetings breakdown, his Palace [1], dying in prison opposition leader Navalny. And on top of it Baiden called Putin a killer. He is playing "strong leader" again. Full scale invasion is higly possible, but only because RF government is insane.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI

Hey, given that you're "on the ground", in your opinion, what is the mood there and what do you think is more likely: - no invasion (flex muscles, drills, go home) - limited invasion - full-scale invasion

Lets check, in 2014 there were two cases:

* Crimea invasion — unexpected "brother nation" invasion, brainwashing about Ukrainian fascists, largely pro-Russian population.

* Donbass — brainwashing, traitors in government and police, RF mercenaries and brainwashed Russians [1].

Since then largely people understood that "Russian peace" is war, poverty and crime. Pro-Russian parties popularity plummeted, last incarnation got 10% [2]. I do not think it is possible to reproduce Donbass scenario. And invasion would not be praised.

Last remaining option is forceful occupation. War goal is North Crimean Canal [3] in Kherson Oblast [4].

Overall mood — we have to be ready. No one can predict Russia — it's information autocracy. Putin does anything to improve his rating. Crimea annexation improved his approval rating up to 87%. And it is falling again — poverty, Putins palace, Navalny in jail, COVID deaths, too much to hide without external enemy.

I hope it is flexing muscles. Preparation is too obvious, compare with Crimea occupation. Yet we have to be ready for "Russian speaking Ukrainians" from nearby Russian cities. It could happen again. In such case I would be in a city center.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7NSj8aRWao

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_Platform_%E2%80%94_...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson_Oblast

> Yet we have to be ready for "Russian speaking Ukrainians" from nearby Russian cities

Yes this is an important point. Russia's official position to this day is that they have not invaded Donbass, and that the conflict there is a civil war. That's transparently false propaganda, and extensive evidence exists of specific identifiable Russian military units operating in Ukraine, but it's nonetheless the Russian narrative. If they escalate further it would not surprise me if it were "Russian speaking Ukrainians" again; Russian operatives furthering Russian interests using Russian equipment and Russian resources, but officially deniable by Russia.

Another favored narrative is that they are protecting Russian-speaking peoples from oppression, and that these oppressed peoples want to be under Russian rule. That worked to some extent in 2014, and I knew many educated and prosperous Ukrainians who believed that propaganda. It will be a harder sell today, as it's very obvious that seven years of "freedom" in Donbass has destroyed the region and made life worse for the Ukrainians who still live there. But, again, I don't think Putin cares if the rest of the world believe that propaganda; the target audience is the Russian people.

Kharkiv and the T-34 factory that built the tanks which stopped the Nazis from invading Moscow is one of the most remarkable stories in history. The timeliness of Mikhal Koshkin’s armor column can not be understated. This is especially interesting because the T-34 platform was invented by J. Walter Christie, an American! The story has got it all for a major blockbuster. Its worth reading about Christie’s life.

Haven't the Ukrainians diverted important rivers upstream on Crimea? Undoing that could be the concession Putin is hoping for.

no. they did block water in artificial canal.

hmm... can you leave?

Running a bootstrapped tech startup, can’t afford to leave.

dang, good luck bud

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