Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions
bbc.com
bbc.com
The Lawfare Podcast: Alex Vindman on the Escalation in Ukraine
https://www.lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcast-alex-vindman-esc...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17
Not commenting on Russia vs. Ukraine here, but I wanted to point out this somewhat misleading line. Novorossiya is the name of that historical region going back to the 1700s. The way it's written by the BBC, it sounds like Russia is just inventing their own new entity from nothing.
Novorossiya was historically a part of the Russian Empire for a very long time. Russia clearly wants it back. Whether they are justified in getting it or not, I have no comment. But the least we can do is actually understand their reasoning.
To decline to stand up to dictator - nay, a tyrant - such as Putin makes one a coward undeserving of the liberties they were born with.
Like I said, it's complicated. Does that justify Russia's actions? I don't know and I am deliberately explaining this in a neutral way.
Waging aggressive war is a violation of international law - The state of Ukraine is the legitimate successor to Ukrainian SFR and if Russia has any claims on its territory those must be pursued through legal means.
There is nothing complicated about the Ukrainian question, it is simply a part of Putin's strategy of death by a thousand cuts. Last time that strategy was used Europe was thrown into a conflict that made the world say never again to nationalism. The Russian people would have done well to listen to their grandfathers now that this conflict is all but forgot.
With your focus on self-determination: if Ukraine allowed specific regions to hold referendums, it is very likely that many regions would opt to join Russia. Then what?
As I have said numerous times now: it is complicated.
Only fools wants to Russia what it become today. State without justice and fair elections, incredibly poor population, no allies.
They've claimed they are "brothers". We were not ready to fight in 2014, not ready to kill "brothers". Now we know who they are. This war affected everyone in Ukraine. Every citizen have seen struggles and poverty caused by war. We know what become of Donetsk and Luhansk. They are going to destroy other cities too. That's not brothers, that's worst enemies.
My mother language in Russian. Now I hate Russia.
> Originally, the name Rus' (Cyrillic: Русь) referred to the people,[1] regions, and medieval states (9th to 12th centuries) of the Kievan Rus'. In Western culture, it was better known as Ruthenia from the 11th century onwards,[2] Its territories are today distributed among Belarus, Northern Ukraine, Eastern Poland, and the European section of Russia. The term Россия (Rossija), comes from the Byzantine Greek designation of the Rus', Ρωσσία Rossía—spelled Ρωσία (Rosía pronounced [roˈsia]) in Modern Greek.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Names_of_Rus%27,_Russia_and_...
Using exonyms to determine the "real" name of a place is also a very odd choice.
Latvia and Lithuania
South Africa and Africa
You get the gist :)
Russia founded by descendants of Russia town, now called Old Russa (Старая Русса), which left their town due to epidemic of plague of Justinian.
In either case, Rus comes from the Scandinavians, not from the Slavs.
Caspian report has a good video on the water situation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aqq8clIceys
362,302 Total Excess Deaths
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/10/world/europe/covid-russia...
[1] https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/TwbjciZH/edn12-2020...
[2] https://www.rbc.ru/economics/08/02/2021/602132e19a7947073f7d...
But what do I know, read Henry Kissinger: https://www.henryakissinger.com/articles/how-the-ukraine-cri...
Russia invasion consolidated Ukrainians. Only NATO could bring peace to my country. Crimea with Russia returns to its native state, land without much water. That was a reason Crimea was handled to Ukraine, on its balance, it was not "present".
Putin is trying to distract from internal problems — rising prices, peaceful meetings breakdown, his Palace [1], dying in prison opposition leader Navalny. And on top of it Baiden called Putin a killer. He is playing "strong leader" again. Full scale invasion is higly possible, but only because RF government is insane.
* Crimea invasion — unexpected "brother nation" invasion, brainwashing about Ukrainian fascists, largely pro-Russian population.
* Donbass — brainwashing, traitors in government and police, RF mercenaries and brainwashed Russians [1].
Since then largely people understood that "Russian peace" is war, poverty and crime. Pro-Russian parties popularity plummeted, last incarnation got 10% [2]. I do not think it is possible to reproduce Donbass scenario. And invasion would not be praised.
Last remaining option is forceful occupation. War goal is North Crimean Canal [3] in Kherson Oblast [4].
Overall mood — we have to be ready. No one can predict Russia — it's information autocracy. Putin does anything to improve his rating. Crimea annexation improved his approval rating up to 87%. And it is falling again — poverty, Putins palace, Navalny in jail, COVID deaths, too much to hide without external enemy.
I hope it is flexing muscles. Preparation is too obvious, compare with Crimea occupation. Yet we have to be ready for "Russian speaking Ukrainians" from nearby Russian cities. It could happen again. In such case I would be in a city center.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7NSj8aRWao
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_Platform_%E2%80%94_...
Yes this is an important point. Russia's official position to this day is that they have not invaded Donbass, and that the conflict there is a civil war. That's transparently false propaganda, and extensive evidence exists of specific identifiable Russian military units operating in Ukraine, but it's nonetheless the Russian narrative. If they escalate further it would not surprise me if it were "Russian speaking Ukrainians" again; Russian operatives furthering Russian interests using Russian equipment and Russian resources, but officially deniable by Russia.
Another favored narrative is that they are protecting Russian-speaking peoples from oppression, and that these oppressed peoples want to be under Russian rule. That worked to some extent in 2014, and I knew many educated and prosperous Ukrainians who believed that propaganda. It will be a harder sell today, as it's very obvious that seven years of "freedom" in Donbass has destroyed the region and made life worse for the Ukrainians who still live there. But, again, I don't think Putin cares if the rest of the world believe that propaganda; the target audience is the Russian people.
Things are as tense here as I've ever experienced since I moved here in 2018. Most Ukrainians I know don't think a full-scale invasion is likely, but I think that's just because contemplating the prospect of an escalation of the war with Russia is too unpleasant. I know that the Ukrainian armed forces are taking it seriously, although as far as I know they haven't yet mobilized any reserves.
That said, a lot has changed since 2014. Back then, Ukraine's military was hollowed out by years of neglect and corruption. Ukraine's armed forces have undergone a significant transformation since then, and while I don't think they could hold off the combined forces of Russia's armor, air, and naval assets, they don't have to: they just have to make Russia pay dearly enough for every meter they take that it's not worth it.
To that end, we (the US but also Canada and Great Britain) have done a lot in terms of training and support, and IIRC there are units of Ukrainian Special Forces which have certified as NATO SOF. If I were a Russian tank commander advancing into Ukrainian territory, I'd be very worried about the Javelin anti-tank missile systems Ukraine bought from the US. Ukraine is also operating a pretty advanced Turkish armed UAV platform which could ruin the day of would-be invaders.
I'm not yet at the point where I'm considering leaving Ukraine, but it is a pretty stressful time. However you have to understand that Ukraine has been at war with Russia since 2014; Ukrainian soldiers have continued to fight and die on the contact line in Eastern Ukraine ever since. So to some extent the population here are used to the looming threat of violence from Russia since it never went away. Nonetheless, this feels like an escalation and that worries me.
The original article title is "Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions"
There are plenty of facts. RF controls occupied territories, "republic" leaders claimed many times it would be impossible without RF supply, mercenaries and army. They've written books on the matter. It is not a secret.
Right now it looks like Russian logic is that every free person in the world is a potential threat to Russia. Because threat is anything that you don't control.
Liberals are better, yet their culture is based on occupation, it brings joy. Annexation of Crimea have raised Putin rating to 87%.
There's another devious tactic Russia uses which is IMHO even worse than the bogus referendum: They've started issuing Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens in the part of Eastern Ukraine that is controlled by the "independent republics" which are de facto controlled by Russia. So now, Russia can say, truthfully, that there are many Russian citizens in Donbass, and justify military escalation there as a purely defensive act responding to Ukrainian abuses of Russian citizens. Meanwhile, life in Donbass gets worse and worse, Russian passport or not.
No one in their mind would ask for "Russian peace", yet they are going to kill us. It is not possible to separate Russian speaking Ukrainians, there are no borders. I speak Russian, Ukrainian, English. For sure my city would be destroyed.
RF claims basically every country with Russian speaking population. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus. Germany maybe? Their politicians claims dominance over the world. They blame West on every problem, and people believe.
What an interesting choice of regions to single out.
While elections in Crimea were clearly not "fair" and the method by which it "joined" Russia was nebulous, the peninsula is absolutely Russian-speaking. It's pretty likely that the population would choose to join Russia, if they'd been given the chance.
Not defending Russia here, but as I said, it's complex.
Please stop spreading lies. Scotland self determination is peaceful. Crimea had its parliament. No one cared to vote until occupation and brainwashing by RF controlled propaganda spreading awful lies about Ukraine.
And there are no fair elections in Russia.
Don't you mean "American logic"? If not, have you looked at a political and military map in the last couple of years, as well as paid attention to the changes?
Surely Russian leaders remember how the war in Afghanistan affected the USSR. It was a massive waste of money and resources, and it played a big role in destabilizing the whole regime.
This would be similar, imo, if NATO backs Ukraine. Russia will just waste money, destroy lives and whatever prosperity the region had, for little to no return. Maybe they get two more republics into the federation.
They're just pushing Ukraine, Georgia into NATO and everyone else away from them. What a sad state of affairs.
The reporting is fine, at this point it’s not a question if Russia would invade the Ukraine they already have, the question is would the west stand up to them with this time or not.
That's what Russian propaganda says, but it has no basis in reality.
It's not Russian propaganda, it's Russian officials.
Russia could have attacked before. Russia could attack later, when Nord Stream 2 is finished and Germany is on hook and won't go anywhere. But right now it's just the wrong time.
Do you think the US has such influence over _any_ country to command it to go to war with another country?
> They have to finish Nord Stream 2, so they absolutely don't want to impose any additional sanctions on themselves.
One would think so, yes; but on the other hand, hasn't Russia annoyed the Western world enough over the last 6-7 years, with Syria, Skripal, or Navalny, despite its obvious need to finish Nord Stream?
They definitely have enough influence to suggest doing so. I remember Victorya Nuland openly supporting Ukraine revolution by physically being there, so obviously they supported them financially. And when US pays someone dollars, they expect something in return. Ukraine officials promised to their people that Ukraine will join NATO, so that's another leverage.
> One would think so, yes; but on the other hand, hasn't Russia annoyed the Western world enough over the last 6-7 years, with Syria, Skripal, or Navalny, despite its obvious need to finish Nord Stream?
I don't fully trust Skripal and Navalny stories, so that's more of western propaganda trying to paint Russia's black from my PoV. Not sure about Syria, probably there were enough geopolitical reasons for that.
Oh yes. There's no doubt the US is supporting Ukraine, at least militarily. They make no secret of it. But it's one thing to ask for, say, access to trade or to natural resources in return, and it's quite another to demand that receiving party commit to something that can potentially turn into a suicide.
There are countries with less cultural and linguistic similarity, for instance Catalonia comes to mind, yet there is also the general agreement that Catalonia is part of Spain and not fully self governed, much less governed by any other country.