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Comment by georgeecollins | Hacker News Reader

That is a brilliant summary of the US China strategic situation! I normally think of it from the US point of view-- China can't really invade us, a war would be catastrophic for them economically. You made me realize how symmetrical that thinking is. Yikes!

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A us China war would be ecconimc suicide to the wrold ecconomy. To the point that countries we think of as poor come out ahead. (Where would Brazil cast their alliance is an interesting question, as one of the few powerful countries that could make a difference that isn't commited already.

Whoever wins will have lost a lot.

Definitely, to mix metaphors 'when the mighty quarrel the meek inherit'.

Switzerland has grown fat on being neutral in both WWs.

Are there examples of this?

Look at Europe after either world war. They took a long time to rebuild their ecconomy afterwards.

I’m not sure I’d describe any continental European country as having won World War Two, except perhaps Russia. France could be described as a winner in World War One, but their economy grew slowest before both wars, not after.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_France

That there were no winners is the point.

You mean you were thinking US might invade China? Yeah, that was never a possibility.

The US might be able to cut off China from a lot of trade by locking its seas and sinking its ships, though. China is still playing catch-up on maritime supremacy.

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