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Comment by falcolas | Hacker News Reader

If you've lived in the midwest anywhere in the last, I dunno, 5 decades, you'll know that John Deere plays the long game. They advertise to people from their infancy to their adulthood. They have more brand recognition in the midwest than either Pepsi and Coke.

When you've been exposed to this kind of life-long influence, it's hard to break out of the mindset. You know John Deere Green, and they've been associated with quality and durability and they belong with you on the farm. They're all but family.

Case, or that weird orange company with the foreign name, on the other hand, are strangers who you don't know if you can trust.

Advertising, no matter how much we say to the contrary, works. And John Deere are old hands at that trade.

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Not that you're wrong that JD has a huge following, but over the past 5 decades they have basically gone the way of American auto manufacturers: everyone knows that their products are inferior to the "imports" (which are all made in America anyway), and they survive by brand recognition, big head start establishing a dealer network, and servicing product categories that nobody else does.

Kubota is basically the Toyota to John Deere - they are eating JD's lunch in quality and buyer/owner perception (as well as sales volume) in the "small cars" segment, and is quickly moving up-market. Kubota doesn't sell combines yet, for example, and they are still not outselling JD in anything other than compact tractors, but the people who buy those (myself included) will never go back to JD. Deere has been plagued with quality issues and where they do innovate with some flashy features at times (just like the F-150 does vs the Tundra), they seem to often cause more trouble than they can be worth.

I would say that (depending on the "trade war" of course) Kubota and the "imports" will surpass JD in total units sold some time in the next decade and then start eroding their dominance in the large tractor market in the following decade, if not sooner.

Yes. I had a Kubota B7800 for about fifteen years. The JD competitor was made by Iseki, priced higher, and known for hydraulic system problems. The choice was easy and I never regretted it.

At the same time I bought the Kubota I worked for a company that made automatic steering systems one could retrofit to many tractors... but not JD, who were already controlling their hydraulic system access.

Never bought JD, stuck with Kubota.

but not JD, who were already controlling their hydraulic system access.

I've only ever used an ancient Farmall tractor where the hydraulic system is just a bunch of generic hoses and levers. How does JD limit hydraulic system access? Do they use proprietary fittings? Digital controls that will refuse to engage the hydraulic pump if a line is spliced?

SAE J1939 specifies an optional encrypted word, and JD used that for hydraulic controls IIRC.

Kudos on keeping the Farmall. My gf at the time had a Ford 8N and I loved that thing on her land, but 2wd didn't work well at my place.

I still have my great grandfathers Farmall Cub, it was the first tractor he and my grandfather bought for the citrus farm they homesteaded in FL, when he passed my grandfather restored it. When my grandfather sold the farm it was the only tractor he kept. My grandfather passed on in 2013 so I brought it down to my property in the FL Keys and use it as a yard tractor here. They just don't build machinery like those old tractors anymore.

It's digitally controlled, no more physical levers connected to valves.

The whole import argument doesn't really hold up very well. The only companies that really challenge John Deere at the high end of the market are Case, Claas and Fendt. The US market is still dominated by the US manufacturers due to the sheer logistics of importing these large machines, and the lack of dealer networks.

Also, you'd be kidding yourself if you think Claas or Fendt are any less reliant on proprietary software at this point.

I've heard the lack of dealer networks is one of the key points against competitors. Those networks serve as a parts and systems replacements logistics multiplier. Implicit 'insurance' against crop loss is built in to that high price.

Logically some kind of insurance against opportunity loss due to equipment issues, and/or better logistics supply for parts would probably aid competition.

Yes, and the imports similarly failed to challenge Ford, GM, and Dodge muscle cars of the 60s and 70s. But Toyota, Nissan, Honda etc. didn't start at the high end, either.

The US market is dominated by US manufacturers due to inertia, all manufacturers are following the same formula of foreign subcomponents and domestic steel.

My father insisted on getting a brand-new Massey Ferguson compact tractor. Way overpriced but he's got brand loyalty from many decades back.

Wouldn't even hear of a Kubota.

I call my Kubota 4.5kW my ole trusty. You can't kill it.

This is true when you get to smaller tractor classes, but when you get up to the big specialized tractors like combines, Kubota and the others just really are not in the game in the US, it's dominated by a few players and they all have closed proprietary systems. Caterpillar and a few other players do this is the specialized heavy equipment game, it's pretty much the same playbook.

As well their really is no comparison, to JD's high end fleet tractors to the ones they sell to compete with New Holland or Kubota, they are different lines with different quality controls. It gets even worse when you get down to personal lawn tractors. They are basically just rebadging commodity built hardware at that level.

> They advertise to people from their infancy to their adulthood.

I grew up in Europe, my family had zero farming background, and even I remember playing with small John Deere tractor toys [0] as a kid in the 90ies.

[0] https://i.ytimg.com/vi/XOD3wPXwEy0/maxresdefault.jpg

In the 90s in rural missouri everyone had those orange tractors (new). Or the red ones (older, or new combines). Or the blue ones (new). Not very many green ones except rusting in the field or as the toy old one you used for around the property work while the real one was doing real work.

Harley Davidson. Marlboro. Jack Daniels. American Music and Films.

If you ever want to see the power of advertising go to another country and it will all be there.

That isn’t just advertising that’s American soft power projection (especially with music and film) - trade agreements have helped the others.

Being there is not always the same as success. Harley for example is seen as overpriced extremely bad quality by almost all bikers outside the US, except maybe by the few who own a Harley. Pretty much the same as Jack Daniels, except that is at least as cheap as it tastes.

> Harley for example is seen as overpriced extremely bad quality by almost all bikers outside the US

This is true in the US as well, in my experience, for both HD and Jack. I think the point is that the Harley brand still holds value among a community of fans both in and outside of the US in a way that [some Japanese sport bike manufacturer] isn't differentiated against its competitors.

This also means the sport bike manufacturers that have competitors have to at least pretend to constantly improve, so there's a lower risk of stagnation which HD is now dealing with.

The thing I have noticed is pockets of popular brands. The deciding factor being the proximity to a regional parts depot. Where I grew up, the JD parts depot is a 20 minute drive away. Any other brand.... much bigger deal (slower) to get parts. But drive 60 miles to the west, and all the tractors are red.

Same as Harley Davidson bikes, the weirdest way to transform gasoline into noise: it is all about marketing and nothing about the products.

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