For example: https://globalnews-ca.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/globalnews.ca/n...
As I said, my contacts in the medical field have the same opinion as the article. It's "unknown" officially, but apparently people on HN don't know anyone in the field who is literally on the front lines researching this. The overwhelming opinion (articles aren't being written yet, expect some in a few weeks) is that the Pfizer vaccine does not actually prevent spread of the virus, only symptoms which decreases the probability of spread, but does not completely prevent spread.
It does not prevent the virus from spreading It does not protect against certain variations that we are seeing like in South Africa
This means that the pandemic will still be there next winter some how. Likely not as bad as it is now. But it won't be over yet as a thread for societies. Remember most emerging/developing countries are not expected to receive vaccinations any time soon.
They'll be able to update the vaccination but many people will lose trust in them unfortunately
Means that our economies & currencies will be in trouble
Remote work will break through. After 2 years nobody is used to anything else anymore
Many people will permanently lose their job/business, but software companies will continue to do extremely well (although there will be some regulatory crack down on the largest companies)
> Do your research.
I don't mean this abrasively but, referring to an unknown third party for credibility and then telling people to do their research does not seem overly convincing to me.
The remaining factors which still require masks are the non-perfect efficiency (~5% of people will still get it), social factors (related to creating two classes of people; the immune and non-immune) and perhaps some others I forgot.
Though, intuitively, I'd still bet that vaccination will reduce viral shedding and the total load shedded, thus also reducing transmission.
As far as I can tell, we just don't know yet. Until we know, some preventative measures would be prudent.
So yes, the scenario you layout is possible. However, it is also possible that it does stop spread.