Put away your exclamation points and have a glance at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/health/pfizer-biont...
For example: https://globalnews-ca.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/globalnews.ca/n...
As I said, my contacts in the medical field have the same opinion as the article. It's "unknown" officially, but apparently people on HN don't know anyone in the field who is literally on the front lines researching this. The overwhelming opinion (articles aren't being written yet, expect some in a few weeks) is that the Pfizer vaccine does not actually prevent spread of the virus, only symptoms which decreases the probability of spread, but does not completely prevent spread.
It does not prevent the virus from spreading It does not protect against certain variations that we are seeing like in South Africa
This means that the pandemic will still be there next winter some how. Likely not as bad as it is now. But it won't be over yet as a thread for societies. Remember most emerging/developing countries are not expected to receive vaccinations any time soon.
They'll be able to update the vaccination but many people will lose trust in them unfortunately
Means that our economies & currencies will be in trouble
Remote work will break through. After 2 years nobody is used to anything else anymore
Many people will permanently lose their job/business, but software companies will continue to do extremely well (although there will be some regulatory crack down on the largest companies)
> Do your research.
I don't mean this abrasively but, referring to an unknown third party for credibility and then telling people to do their research does not seem overly convincing to me.
The remaining factors which still require masks are the non-perfect efficiency (~5% of people will still get it), social factors (related to creating two classes of people; the immune and non-immune) and perhaps some others I forgot.
Though, intuitively, I'd still bet that vaccination will reduce viral shedding and the total load shedded, thus also reducing transmission.
As far as I can tell, we just don't know yet. Until we know, some preventative measures would be prudent.
So yes, the scenario you layout is possible. However, it is also possible that it does stop spread.
Most other vaccines prevent spread. Why don't these?
i'm not a virologist nor an immunologist but this is my understanding of the situation.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2798-3
> it is important to note that natural infection induces both mucosal antibody responses (secretory immunoglobulin A (IgA)) and systemic antibody responses (IgG). The upper respiratory tract is thought to be mainly protected by secretory IgA, whereas the lower respiratory tract is thought to be mainly protected by IgG27,28,29. Vaccines that are administered intramuscularly or intradermally induce mainly IgG, and no secretory IgA30. It is therefore possible that most vaccines currently in development induce disease-preventing or disease-attenuating immunity, but not necessarily sterilizing immunity (Fig. 2).
> The lower human respiratory tract is thought to be mostly protected by IgG (IgG1 is most prevalent), the main type of antibody in serum, which is transported into the lung. The upper respiratory tract is thought to be mostly protected by secretory IgA1 (sIgA1). a, Natural infection with respiratory viruses induces both a systemic immune response, dominated by IgG1, as well as a mucosal immune response in the upper respiratory tract that is dominated by sIgA1. This process can lead to sterilizing immunity for many respiratory viruses. b, Intramuscular or intradermal vaccination leads in many cases to a strong induction of serum IgG but not to an induction of mucosal IgA. Although some IgG can also be found on the mucosal surfaces of the upper respiratory tract, the lack of sIgA often leaves an individual vulnerable to infection of the upper respiratory tract. c, Intranasal vaccination can efficiently induce mucosal antibody responses, thereby potentially providing sterilizing immunity in the upper respiratory tract. However, systemic immune responses are often lower after this type of vaccination. Currently, all SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates in clinical development are administered intramuscularly, and very few of the more than 180 vaccine candidates in development are designed to induce mucosal immunity. Although mucosal immunity might not be required to protect from severe or even symptomatic disease, it could be required to achieve optimal protection from infection and onward transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
If we developed intranasal covid vaccines, would those also produce IgA antibodies?