I think there's a lot of stress/weird things going on beneath the surface in markets that few are talking about (stuff that kind of reminds me when 30Y UST was more expensive to borrow as collateral to use in repo for about a month before it blew up SOFR), a couple:

- 5% of accepted 30Y UST bids a couple days ago were at/below 8bps [0] (unclear to me how CB buying more, thus competing with those who are willing to buy such ~160bps off market will help firms who need 30Y UST on their balance sheets and Bid to cover is at 2.48), this was also the case for the last 20Y UST auction [1] and the last 10Y UST auction (8bps low, ~90bps off market now) [2]

- nearly every single tenor spread with the 30Y UST is consolidating near its 2.5 year highs (or higher for the longer dated spreads) [4] people keep saying "inflation is coming" but people getting 10-30Y UST at auction for 8bps says otherwise…

- Retail money market ETFs like OPER run by the same folks at the Bear Stearns desk in 07/08, who cant tell you how they get their rates[5] they get because its a deal they worked out with BNY mellon and US Bank ("They are controlled by the collateral schedules that OPER has agreed to accept from the counter-party. As such, US Bank does not post those details")

[0] https://www.treasurydirect.gov/xml/R_20201210_3.xml

[1] https://www.treasurydirect.gov/xml/R_20201118_3.xml

[2] https://www.treasurydirect.gov/xml/R_20201209_3.xml

[4] https://i.ibb.co/2M7GWhw/num-inverted.png

[5] https://clear-shares.com/download-holdings-usbanks.php?fund=...