Exasperated Exuberance

I think there's a lot of stress/weird things going on beneath the surface in markets that few are talking about (stuff that kind of reminds me when 30Y UST was more expensive to borrow as collateral to use in repo for about a month before it blew up SOFR), a couple:

- 5% of accepted 30Y UST bids a couple days ago were at/below 8bps [0] (unclear to me how CB buying more, thus competing with those who are willing to buy such ~160bps off market will help firms who need 30Y UST on their balance sheets and Bid to cover is at 2.48), this was also the case for the last 20Y UST auction [1] and the last 10Y UST auction (8bps low, ~90bps off market now) [2]

- nearly every single tenor spread with the 30Y UST is consolidating near its 2.5 year highs (or higher for the longer dated spreads) [4] people keep saying "inflation is coming" but people getting 10-30Y UST at auction for 8bps says otherwise…

- Retail money market ETFs like OPER run by the same folks at the Bear Stearns desk in 07/08, who cant tell you how they get their rates[5] they get because its a deal they worked out with BNY mellon and US Bank ("They are controlled by the collateral schedules that OPER has agreed to accept from the counter-party. As such, US Bank does not post those details")

[0] https://www.treasurydirect.gov/xml/R_20201210_3.xml

[1] https://www.treasurydirect.gov/xml/R_20201118_3.xml

[2] https://www.treasurydirect.gov/xml/R_20201209_3.xml

[4] https://i.ibb.co/2M7GWhw/num-inverted.png

[5] https://clear-shares.com/download-holdings-usbanks.php?fund=...

I keep looking at the chart of USD compared to other currencies and it keeps going down. We are back to 2018 levels. [0]

It seems to me that people are buying things with their USD... stocks. That makes the stock market go up up up. Don't forget that the Fed is buying stocks [1].

While at the same time, we just keep printing more USD. You look at the M2 charts and they are up up up. [2] This says that inflation is coming, but I don't think it'll look like inflation of the past.

I just searched for an apartment all up and down the west coast USA and total dumps are going for $3k+ a month. Unheard of 5-10 years ago. Why is it generally more expensive to rent now? I think we've become numb to the increases in prices of things.

Plus, as the article points out, bad things are coming... covid has wrecked a lot of people. The govt isn't helping much. Even with the vaccine coming, it has to catch up to us eventually. Or does it?

[0] https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR&view=5Y

[1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-has-been-buying-et...

[2] https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_m2_money_stock

How do bubbles pop? What triggers a sell-off? How does reality set in?

That Brian Chesky video is incredible. I hope if any fallout - AirBnB manages to stay afloat.