The max upside for these are all less than 3x. I wouldn't call something with >2 years to execute with a max upside of 3x "bank"
I think it's a malinvestment unless you are reasonably certain there will be a drop soonish but want to hedge that bet with something long-dated.
Anyway, I was simply responding to your statement that you could make bank on it, which I highly disagree with. So much uncertainty is already priced in that the max upside is only 3x even if the company becomes completely worthless in the next 2 years.
A quick test for the certainty a lot of people are expressing here on the company's worthlessness is how much they're willing to bet on making that real.
And I agree with you, I wouldn't make the trade. But that's all because I can't predict it.
And I'll set aside the fact that $30k in the Bay isn't rich in any form.