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Comment by renewiltord | Hacker News Reader

There were Jan 20, 2023 puts on this guy. And there still are. The problem here is that I don't actually know anything about NKLA or the business they're in.

If you think they'll go under in the next two years, you could make bank on just debit spreads. And if you think they're a shite company but don't know where they're gonna go, do you really know anything?

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I knew NKLA wasn't worth $20 billion, but had no idea, and still have no idea, whether it will be priced at $20 billion.

Well, no company is 'worth' its market cap since you can rarely exchange it for that value in total. But of course the only meaningful notion of absolute 'worth' of something like this is the value as determined by the market. Of course it may not have been worth it to you at the marginal clearing price, but that's because the value to you is a function of the valuer and the thing being valued.

If a guy is selling sandwiches on the street for $1 million and a hungry Jeff Bezos happens to wander by and purchase one, the sandwiches still aren't worth $1 million.

Well, that's because 'worth' is ill-defined on its own. The 'worth' of that sandwich could be any of "last clearing price", "current ask", "current bid", or any other metric you choose.

So the sandwich isn't worth a million but it isn't worth any sum because 'worth' isn't a concept on its own.

That's right; you'd have to pay Bezos substantially more to get that sandwich.

The max upside for these are all less than 3x. I wouldn't call something with >2 years to execute with a max upside of 3x "bank"

You're real damn sure, right? You got another sure shot at 3x over 2 years? There's enough in the order book there for you to turn $30k into $100k.

I'm not sure, just because I think something is intrinsically worthless doesn't mean there won't be other people who still think the stock has value in 2 years.

I think it's a malinvestment unless you are reasonably certain there will be a drop soonish but want to hedge that bet with something long-dated.

Anyway, I was simply responding to your statement that you could make bank on it, which I highly disagree with. So much uncertainty is already priced in that the max upside is only 3x even if the company becomes completely worthless in the next 2 years.

Right, but that's where it comes in that you have better knowledge than the aggregate of the market. Whether or not it's bank is how much the gain is. Whether or not it's worth the risk is separate.

A quick test for the certainty a lot of people are expressing here on the company's worthlessness is how much they're willing to bet on making that real.

And I agree with you, I wouldn't make the trade. But that's all because I can't predict it.

Rich people have the weirdest hobbies. There are surer, quicker, and much more fulfilling things I could do if I had $30k.

Surely that's the most unsurprising thing in the world. I doubt there is a set of things that all currently alive people in the world find "surest, quickest, and most fulfilling".

And I'll set aside the fact that $30k in the Bay isn't rich in any form.

Maybe that's why you don't have $30K.

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